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@BetXpert_X809 followersfirst pick 9 Septusually posts 6 h before start

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FootballTennisBasketball
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Tipster index45.6#526 on the leaderboardup 10 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
56.1%
expected 59.9%
Edge
−3.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
41
23-18
ROI
−6.0%
on 37 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.00 u
Average odds
1.48
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W5, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-208 Sept20 Sept2 Oct13 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Football17-8 · 25 graded
+6.1
68%
Tennis5-9 · 14 graded
−20.6
36%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−9.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result11-9 · 20 graded
−8.0
55%
Parlays8-7 · 15 graded
+0.8
53%
Totals3-2 · 5 graded
−9.7
60%
Double chance1-0 · 1 graded
+40.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-7 · 14 graded
−25.1
50%
Even8-4 · 12 graded
+15.3
67%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.507-5 · 12 graded
−29.3%
58%
1.50…1.896-4 · 10 graded
+6.8%
60%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −0.2 pp
    15-8 · 65%
    ROI −0.9%
  • October 2026
    −8.4 pp
    8-10 · 44%
    ROI −13.4%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:03 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
1:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 10:34 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90Won
China · CBA·
Sichuan Blue Whales
49:91
Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Zhejiang Golden Bulls to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.90 u
Parlay · 2posted 21 Oct, 10:31 · 8 h before start
odds 1.74Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Benjamin Bonzi
1:2
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul to win✓
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Gauthier Onclin
0:2
Jan-Lennard Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff to win✓
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.74 u
Parlay · 3posted 21 Oct, 08:08 · 11 h before start
odds 1.49Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Real Madrid to win@1.25✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Over 1.5@1.25✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Sporting CP
2:3
LASK
Sporting CP to win@1.19✕
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 01:44 · 6 h before start
Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Sorana Cirstea
2:0
Han Shi
Han Shi to win
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Parlay · 2posted 12 Oct, 02:08 · 13 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
Premier League·
Coventry City
4:1
Newcastle United
Over 1.5✓
Super League·
PAOK FC
1:3
Kalamata
PAOK FC to win✕
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 11 Oct, 18:36 · 21 h before start
odds 2.16Lost
ATP Challenger · Maia, Portugal·
Sumit Nagal
2:1
Henrique Rocha
Henrique Rocha to win@1.28✕
ATP Challenger · Roanne, France·
Hugo Gaston
2:0
Daniel Jade
Hugo Gaston to win@1.21✓
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 11 Oct, 03:21 · 49 min before start
odds 1.76Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Ben Shelton
0:2
Arthur Gea
Ben Shelton to win@1.36✕
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Karen Khachanov
2:0
Adrian Mannarino
Karen Khachanov to win@1.30✓
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 06:00 · 4 h before start
odds 1.52Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Novak Djokovic
0:2
Hubert Hurkacz
Novak Djokovic to win@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 9 Oct, 03:26 · 44 min before start
odds 1.38Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Rei Sakamoto
2:0
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev to win@1.38✕
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alex de Minaur
void
Alex Molcan
Alex de Minaur to win@1.34∅
Open on Xexpected 69% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 09:40 · 3 h before start
odds 1.52Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Cameron Norrie
1:2
Dalibor Svrcina
Cameron Norrie to win@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 06:19 · 4 h before start
odds 1.37Lost
Japan · B.League·
Kobe Storks
94:86
Chiba Jets
Chiba Jets to win@1.37
Open on Xexpected 70% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 06:51 · 21 h before start
odds 1.89Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Kimmer Coppejans
0:2
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 01:17 · 8 h before start
odds 1.74Void
ATP 500 · China Open·
Alex de Minaur
void
Hubert Hurkacz
Alex de Minaur to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds
Parlay · 2posted 5 Oct, 01:15 · 6 h before start
odds 1.57Won
International Friendlies · Friendlies·
Japan
2:1
New Zealand
Japan to win@1.24✓
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Carlos Alcaraz
2:1
Jaume Munar
Carlos Alcaraz to win@1.11✓
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.57 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 22:56 · 6 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Hubert Hurkacz
2:0
Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov to win
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Parlay · 3posted 3 Oct, 10:28 · 4 h before start
odds 2.03Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Croatia
0:7
England
England or draw@1.21✓
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 1·
Switzerland
2:1
Slovenia
Switzerland to win@1.30✓
International Friendlies · Friendlies·
India
0:4
Brazil
Over 3.5@1.29✓
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.03 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:02 · 2 min before start
odds 1.82Won
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Katie Volynets
1:2
Elise Mertens
Elise Mertens to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Parlay · 2posted 2 Oct, 13:54 · 2 h before start
odds 2.04Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Belgium
3:0
Turkiye
Belgium to win@1.59✓
Euro U21 2027 · Qualification: Group G·
Slovenia U21
2:4
Netherlands U21
Netherlands U21 to win@1.28✓
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.04 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 11:11 · 17 h before start
odds 1.33Lost
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Alejandro Tabilo
2:0
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 29 Sept, 05:08 · 8 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
Africa Cup of Nations Qualification · Qualification: Group I·
Burundi
2:2
Algeria
Algeria to win@1.28✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Spain
4:1
Croatia
Spain to win@1.24✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Czechia
0:2
England
England to win@1.15✓
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 27 Sept, 06:51 · 54 min before start
odds 1.52Won
ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·
Hugo Gaston
1:2
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev to win@1.22✓
ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·
Daniil Medvedev
2:1
Chak Wong
Daniil Medvedev to win@1.25✓
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.52 u
Parlay · 2posted 26 Sept, 17:04 · 2 h before start
odds 1.76Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
England
2:3
Spain
Over 1.5@1.22✓
UEFA Nations League · League C: Group 3·
Slovakia
2:0
Moldova
Slovakia to win@1.18✓
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.76 u
Parlay · 2posted 25 Sept, 03:38 · 6 h before start
odds 1.31Won
International Friendlies · Friendlies·
Australia
1:1
Brazil
Over 2@1.16↺
Africa Cup of Nations Qualification · Qualification: Group A·
Morocco
2:0
Gabon
Morocco to win@1.13✓
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.31 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 13:35 · 4 h before start
odds 1.28Lost
EFL Trophy · EFL Trophy North: Group E·
Tranmere Rovers
1:0
Shrewsbury Town
Over 1.5@1.28
Open on Xexpected 74% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 02:30 · 15 h before start
odds 1.17Won
Croatia · HNL·
Dinamo Zagreb
3:2
NK Lokomotiva
Dinamo Zagreb to win@1.17
Open on Xexpected 81% from odds+0.17 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 02:30 · 16 h before start
odds 1.29Won
Serie A·
AC Milan
3:0
Lecce
AC Milan to win@1.29
Open on Xexpected 74% from odds+0.29 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 02:30 · 10 h before start
odds 1.30Won
Premier League·
Manchester City
5:3
Sunderland
Manchester City to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.30 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 02:29 · 17 h before start
odds 1.20Won
LaLiga·
Sevilla
1:3
Barcelona
Barcelona to win@1.20
Open on Xexpected 79% from odds+0.20 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 02:29 · 17 h before start
odds 1.19Lost
Primeira Liga·
Sporting CP
2:2
Arouca
Sporting CP to win@1.19
Open on Xexpected 80% from odds−1.00 u