Won
2. Bundesliga·
Holstein Kiel
0:0
Hertha BerlinHertha Berlin or draw
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FootballTennis
Hit rate
60.0%
expected 64.2%
Edge
−4.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
20
12-8
ROI
-
on 4 picks with odds
Average odds
1.44
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W5, worst L3
Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Football7-6 · 13 graded
−10.054%
Tennis5-2 · 7 graded
+6.671%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Match result7-4 · 11 graded
−2.164%
Both teams to score0-3 · 3 graded
−59.60%
Double chance2-0 · 2 graded
+26.9100%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+56.4100%
Totals1-1 · 2 graded
−23.950%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Favourite9-5 · 14 graded
−6.364%
Even3-3 · 6 graded
+0.750%
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
< 1.502-1 · 3 graded
-67%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-0%
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks- October 2026−4.2 pp12-8 · 60%
By league
- Champions League6-275%+12.0
- ATP 10004-180%+17.5
- WTA 10001-150%−20.9
- Bundesliga · Germany0-20%−63.1
- Ligue 1 · France0-10%−60.1
- Eliteserien · Norway0-10%−61.1
- 2. Bundesliga · Germany1-0100%+21.5
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Picks
Hertha BerlinLost
Bundesliga·
Eintracht Frankfurt
1:0
FC CologneBoth teams to score: yes
Lost
Ligue 1·
Le Mans
0:3
ToulouseBoth teams to score: yes
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Alex de Minaur
Alexander Zverev to win
Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Ann Li
2:0
Janice Tjen
Ann Li to win
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
2:4
Paris Saint-GermainManchester City to win
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
3:4
Real MadridReal Madrid or draw
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
3:6
LiverpoolLiverpool over 1.5
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Bodoe/Glimt
1:0
Borussia DortmundOver 2.5
odds 1.31DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Galatasaray
1:4
BarcelonaBarcelona to win
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Viking
3:3
Bayern MunichBayern Munich over 2.5
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Arsenal
3:0
LilleArsenal to win
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Inter
3:4
Club BruggeOver 2.5
Lost
Eliteserien·
Brann
0:2
VikingBoth teams to score: yes
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
2:2
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund to win
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Miomir Kecmanovic
0:2
Jakub Mensik
Jakub Mensik to win
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Novak Djokovic
0:2
Hubert Hurkacz
Novak Djokovic to win
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Hubert Hurkacz
2:0
James Duckworth
Hubert Hurkacz to win
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Sho Shimabukuro
0:2
Miomir Kecmanovic
Miomir Kecmanovic to win
Lost
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Coco Gauff
0:2
Elise Mertens
Coco Gauff to win