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AVA

@AVAPICKS34 followersfirst pick 4 Novusually posts 2 days before start

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NFL & NCAAFBasketball
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Tipster index56.4needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Open picks 4

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
-:-
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −12
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
-:-
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois Huskies +16.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
-:-
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars −3.5
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
-:-
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −24
Hit rate
100.0%
expected 48.7%
Edge
+51.3 pp
over expectation
Graded
2
2-0 · 4 pending
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L0

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.514 Nov5 Nov

By sport

Basketball2-0 · 2 graded
+51.3
100%
NFL & NCAAF0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+50.1
100%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+52.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-0 · 0 graded
-
-
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+50.1
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

  • November 2026
    +51.3 pp
    2-0 · 100%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 5 Nov, 15:30 · 2 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
-:-
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −12
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 15:30 · 2 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
-:-
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois Huskies +16.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 15:30 · 2 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
-:-
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars −3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 15:30 · 3 days before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
-:-
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −24
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Nov, 23:32 · 57 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
109:102
Milwaukee Bucks
Under 221.5@1.91✓
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
109:102
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +11.5@1.91✓
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:32 · 27 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
105:120
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u