Worm

@wormwtf24K followersfirst pick 23 Aug

The one and only leveraged prediction market. Built on @solana. Discord: https://t.co/zng7zwTxhG

FootballCricket

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Tipster index53.6needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

75.0%

expected 59.8%

Edge

+15.2 pp

over expectation

Graded

3-1

ROI

on 3 picks with odds

Average odds

1.84

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football2-1 · 3 graded

+13.3

67%

Cricket1-0 · 1 graded

+20.8

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-1 · 4 graded

+15.2

75%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded

+27.7

100%

Even1-1 · 2 graded

+2.6

50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded

100%

1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded

50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).