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nafseh

@umhomdani25 followersfirst pick 21 Octusually posts 2 h before start

gask gasak

FootballTennisBasketball
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Tipster index49.4#469 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
35.0%
expected 36.1%
Edge
−1.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 16.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
4-7
ROI
−54.4%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.09 u
Average odds
2.90
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W2, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.520 Oct23 Oct26 Oct29 Oct1 Nov

By sport

Football1-6 · 7 graded
−21.7
8%
Tennis2-1 · 3 graded
+19.0
67%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+62.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-4 · 6 graded
−10.3
30%
Match result2-3 · 5 graded
+8.1
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−61.4
0%
Even2-1 · 3 graded
+29.6
75%
Underdog2-5 · 7 graded
−1.3
29%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
33%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
67%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-3 · 3 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +9.0 pp
    4-4 · 47%
    ROI −39.9%
  • November 2026
    −31.5 pp
    0-3 · 0%

By league

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nafseh (@umhomdani) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 18:04 · 2 h before start
odds 2.24Half lost
Serie A·
Juventus
2:0
Napoli
Juventus −2.24@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−0.50 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 18:04 · 2 h before start
odds 3.29Lost
Serie A·
Juventus
2:0
Napoli
Draw@3.29
Open on Xexpected 29% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 18:04 · 2 h before start
odds 3.33Lost
Serie A·
Juventus
2:0
Napoli
Napoli −3.33@3.33
Open on Xexpected 29% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 15:16 · 3 h before start
odds 3.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Ligue 1·
Nice
5:2
Rennes
Draw
Open on Xexpected 28% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 17:01 · 2 h before start
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Maccabi Tel Aviv
94:99
Paris Basketball
Paris Basketball to win
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 18:09 · 2 h before start
odds 4.60Lost
Serie A·
Udinese
0:2
AC Milan
Udinese −4.6@4.60
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 18:09 · 2 h before start
odds 3.55Lost
Serie A·
Udinese
0:2
AC Milan
Draw@3.55
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 18:09 · 2 h before start
odds 1.81Half won
Serie A·
Udinese
0:2
AC Milan
AC Milan −1.81@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.41 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 06:24 · 6 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Stan Wawrinka
2:1
Martin Landaluce
Stan Wawrinka to win
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 06:24 · 6 h before start
odds 2.20Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Stan Wawrinka
2:1
Martin Landaluce
Stan Wawrinka −2.2@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 06:24 · 6 h before start
odds 1.55Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Stan Wawrinka
2:1
Martin Landaluce
Martin Landaluce −1.55@1.55
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u