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Solverde.pt 🔞

@solverdept30.3K followersfirst pick 12 Augusually posts 10 h before start

São muitos anos.

FootballTennis
CompareRSS
Tipster index52.2#321 on the leaderboarddown 23 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
64.7%
expected 61.7%
Edge
+3.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
17
11-6
ROI
−2.3%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.41
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.5111 Aug29 Aug15 Sept3 Oct20 Oct

By sport

Football10-3 · 13 graded
+12.2
77%
Tennis1-3 · 4 graded
−26.6
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result7-4 · 11 graded
−3.9
64%
Both teams to score2-1 · 3 graded
+11.6
67%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+23.6
50%
Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+12.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-1 · 8 graded
+11.1
88%
Even3-4 · 7 graded
−12.0
43%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.505-1 · 6 graded
+1.8%
83%
1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +2.7 pp
    4-2 · 67%
  • September 2026
    −1.1 pp
    4-3 · 57%
  • October 2026
    +10.8 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 19 Oct, 10:29 · 33 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
FC Porto
0:1
PSV Eindhoven
FC Porto to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Oct, 09:56 · 31 h before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Lens
0:2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Lens
0:2
Sporting CP
Over 1✓
Open on Xexpected 33% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:26 · 8 h before start
odds 1.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Primeira Liga·
Maritimo
1:2
FC Porto
FC Porto to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.30 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 09:13 · 10 h before start
odds 1.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Spain
3:1
Czechia
Spain to win
Open on Xexpected 88% from the closing line+0.05 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 09:08 · 2 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Nuno Borges
0:2
Novak Djokovic
Nuno Borges to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 15:56 · 4 h before start
Won
Primeira Liga·
FC Porto
3:1
Benfica
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 09:44 · 10 h before start
Lost
Primeira Liga·
SC Braga
1:0
Estoril
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 11:27 · 12 h before start
Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
1:3
Ben Shelton
Frances Tiafoe to win
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 10:46 · 14 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Luciano Darderi
Alexander Zverev to win
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 09:19 · 6 h before start
odds 1.71DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:1
Chelsea
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.71 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 09:15 · 10 h before start
Won
Serie A·
Juventus
1:1
AC Milan
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 23 Aug, 09:32 · 10 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Primeira Liga·
FC Porto
2:0
Arouca
FC Porto to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 09:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Premier League·
Newcastle United
2:2
Liverpool
Liverpool to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Aug, 09:43 · 13 h before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Nuno Borges
1:2
Brandon Nakashima
Nuno Borges to win✕
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Nuno Borges
1:2
Brandon Nakashima
Over 23.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 20% by model
Singleposted 19 Aug, 08:22 · 35 h before start
odds 1.12DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League Qualification·
Benfica
3:1
AGF
Benfica to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.12 u
Singleposted 15 Aug, 09:16 · 10 h before start
odds 1.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Primeira Liga·
Rio Ave
0:2
FC Porto
FC Porto to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line+0.36 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 08:07 · 11 h before start
Won
UEFA Super Cup·
Paris Saint-Germain
2:1
Aston Villa
Paris Saint-Germain +1.5
Open on Xexpected 87% by model