Savage Picks

@savagepicks142 followersfirst pick 10 Sept

Daily sports betting picks and Fantasy Football talk. VIP members get every play, every day. Link below.

NFL & NCAAFBaseball

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Tipster index46.6needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 64.3%

Edge

−14.3 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-2

ROI

on 3 picks with odds

Average odds

1.53

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball2-0 · 2 graded

+37.2

100%

NFL & NCAAF0-2 · 2 graded

−65.9

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-1 · 2 graded

−17.9

50%

Match result1-1 · 2 graded

−10.8

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-2 · 3 graded

−32.7

33%

Even1-0 · 1 graded

+40.8

100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded

100%

1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded

50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).