EL TIO POLO

@picksdepolo34.7K followersfirst pick 14 Oct

Analista de deportes + Apuestas | Contenido deportivo | Momios positivos | MLB - Que viva el béisbol.

Baseball

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Tipster index53.5needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

66.7%

expected 47.6%

Edge

+19.1 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-1

ROI

on 3 picks with odds

Average odds

2.09

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball2-1 · 3 graded

+19.1

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result2-1 · 3 graded

+19.1

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even1-1 · 2 graded

−2.4

50%

Underdog1-0 · 1 graded

+62.0

100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded

100%

1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded

2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).