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@pickdoctorsca1.8K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 4 h before start

Our picks are always good, sometimes great, never terrible -HM Now Season 6 of the Podcast & sports picks! #NFLPicks #NHLPicks #NBAPicks #MLBPicks

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index54.5#217 on the leaderboarddown 21 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
55.9%
expected 52.6%
Edge
+3.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
62
33-26-3
ROI
−3.1%
on 44 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.52 u
Average odds
1.78
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W6, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20242 Aug23 Aug13 Sept4 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Baseball15-10 · 25 graded
+8.4
60%
NFL & NCAAF12-6-2 · 20 graded
+14.2
67%
Hockey5-10-1 · 16 graded
−21.2
33%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+50.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result13-14 · 27 graded
−7.9
48%
Handicap13-7-1 · 21 graded
+11.7
65%
Totals6-2-2 · 10 graded
+24.2
75%
Parlays1-3 · 4 graded
−4.1
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite8-5 · 13 graded
−2.2
62%
Even24-18-3 · 45 graded
+5.8
57%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8918-13 · 31 graded
−0.1%
58%
1.90…2.296-7 · 13 graded
−10.2%
46%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +11.1 pp
    13-7 · 65%
    ROI +17.6%
  • September 2026
    +12.8 pp
    11-7-1 · 61%
    ROI +26.4%
  • October 2026
    −12.1 pp
    9-12-2 · 43%
    ROI −44.4%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:05 · 3 h before start
odds 1.56Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
2:3
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:23 · 36 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:23 · 2 h before start
Push
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
1:5
Minnesota Wild
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:06 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
13:35
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:05 · 7 h before start
odds 1.58Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:08 · 6 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:50 · 10 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:50 · 10 min before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −7
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:09 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos +8.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:47 · 5 h before start
odds 1.64Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 03:29 · 14 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −1
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.76Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
5:1
Philadelphia Flyers
Boston Bruins to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:15 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
3:6
Seattle Kraken
Detroit Red Wings to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 8 Oct, 18:09 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 48.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5✓
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
5:3
Ottawa Senators
Detroit Red Wings to win@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.86 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 19:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.58Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
2:3
Winnipeg Jets
Pittsburgh Penguins to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 12:55 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:2
Utah Mammoth
Under 5.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 03:41 · 13 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 00:08 · 52 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:1
St. Louis Blues
Colorado Avalanche −1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 23:22 · 38 min before start
odds 1.73Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:1
Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 20:15 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
6:5
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 19:45 · 5 h before start
odds 1.56Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
0:4
St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:43 · 6 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
1:6
Seattle Kraken
Calgary Flames to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 23:18 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Under 44
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 08:17 · 9 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
Detroit Lions −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:10 · 15 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills −7.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:07 · 15 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −1.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 21:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Under 47.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 07:38 · 13 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
7:31
Seattle Seahawks
Under 41.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 07:38 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
3:9
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears −4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u