Skip to content
BetBuddyRank

nofad

@nofadsec1.6K followersfirst pick 15 Augusually posts 5 h before start

Prediction markets Focused on probabilities and information flow.

FootballTennis
CompareRSS
Tipster index56.9#177 on the leaderboarddown 7 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
54.8%
expected 48.0%
Edge
+6.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
31
17-14
ROI
−7.1%
on 18 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.31 u
Average odds
3.70
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01214 Aug2 Sept20 Sept9 Oct27 Oct

By sport

Football12-12 · 24 graded
+5.8
50%
Tennis5-2 · 7 graded
+10.3
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result13-12 · 25 graded
+9.3
52%
Parlays2-1 · 3 graded
+4.3
67%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+16.0
100%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−66.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-1 · 8 graded
+12.7
88%
Even5-5 · 10 graded
+2.0
50%
Underdog3-7 · 10 graded
+7.7
30%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-0 · 3 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.293-2 · 5 graded
+24.0%
60%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
3.50+1-6 · 7 graded
−50.0%
14%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +11.0 pp
    6-4 · 60%
  • September 2026
    +6.9 pp
    7-5 · 58%
    ROI −16.4%
  • October 2026
    +2.1 pp
    4-5 · 44%
    ROI −25.2%

By league

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

Badge for your site

Show your BetBuddyRank index on your site, Linktree or Telegram channel. The badge updates with the leaderboard and links to this page.

nofad (@nofadsec) on BetBuddyRank
Social card (PNG)
HTML
Markdown
BBCode

Picks

Singleposted 27 Oct, 19:07 · 38 min before start
odds 4.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Serie A·
AS Roma
4:2
Cagliari
Draw
Open on Xexpected 21% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 19:07 · 38 min before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
AS Roma
4:2
Cagliari
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.39 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 18:52 · 1 h before start
odds 6.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real Madrid
Draw
Open on Xexpected 16% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 25 Oct, 18:52 · 1 h before start
Lost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real Madrid
Barcelona to win✕
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real Madrid
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:26 · 33 min before start
odds 3.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
Napoli
3:3
AS Roma
Draw
Open on Xexpected 30% from the closing line+2.10 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:43 · 5 h before start
odds 4.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Paris Saint-Germain
4:2
Barcelona
Draw
Open on Xexpected 22% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:54 · 2 days before start
odds 2.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Getafe
1:1
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano to win
Open on Xexpected 36% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:54 · 18 h before start
Won
Spain · Segunda Division RFEF: Group 4·
UD Tamaraceite
3:2
Betis Deportivo Balompie
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 75% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 30 Sept, 12:20 · 14 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Brandon Nakashima
0:2
Ugo Humbert
Over 1.74 sets✓
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Brandon Nakashima
0:2
Ugo Humbert
Under 2.02 sets✓
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 15:55 · 3 h before start
odds 3.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Norway
1:2
Portugal
Draw
Open on Xexpected 25% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 15:55 · 3 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Norway
1:2
Portugal
Norway to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 13:23 · 5 h before start
odds 7.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Turkiye
0:1
France
Turkiye to win
Open on Xexpected 12% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 13:23 · 29 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 1·
North Macedonia
0:3
Switzerland
Switzerland to win
Open on Xexpected 73% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 13:23 · 5 h before start
Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Turkiye
0:1
France
Under 5.5
Open on Xexpected 93% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
odds 2.15DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
England
2:3
Spain
Spain to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line+1.15 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 13:57 · 5 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Sevilla
1:3
Barcelona
Barcelona to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 16:44 · 3 h before start
odds 15.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
7:2
Racing Santander
Draw
Open on Xexpected 6% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 16 Sept, 16:44 · 3 h before start
Won
LaLiga·
Barcelona
7:2
Racing Santander
Barcelona to win✓
LaLiga·
Barcelona
7:2
Racing Santander
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:46 · 3 h before start
Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:1
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton to win
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 14:58 · 4 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Karen Khachanov
Alexander Zverev to win
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 8 Sept, 20:33 · 3 days before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Ligue 1·
Rennes
1:0
Marseille
Rennes to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:32 · 5 h before start
Won
Süper Lig·
Galatasaray
3:2
Goztepe
Galatasaray to win
Open on Xexpected 27% by model
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:32 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Ligue 1·
Strasbourg
2:1
Lens
Lens to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:32 · 28 min before start
odds 2.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
1:1
Everton
AFC Bournemouth to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:32 · 28 min before start
odds 3.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
1:1
Everton
Draw
Open on Xexpected 27% from the closing line+2.50 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:32 · 5 h before start
Lost
Serie A·
Juventus
2:0
Parma
Juventus −2.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 24 Aug, 14:09 · 5 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Fulham
2:3
Chelsea
Chelsea to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:36 · 5 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · Cincinnati·
Jessica Pegula
2:1
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek to win
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:36 · 9 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Brandon Nakashima
0:2
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 15 Aug, 15:04 · 6 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Terence Atmane
2:0
Tomas Etcheverry
Terence Atmane to win
Open on Xexpected 51% by model