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LegUpPicks

@legupofficial145.4K followersfirst pick 21 Augusually posts 8 h before start

Most Transparent Betting Community Online. 🎯 Top 1% of Bettors 📈 Every pick tracked 🤝 All results public 💰October's Free Picks Record 16-11

BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootball
CompareRSS
Tipster index42.9#616 on the leaderboarddown 315 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
42.3%
expected 49.9%
Edge
−7.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 27.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
27
11-15-1
ROI
−13.3%
on 25 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.78 u
Average odds
2.08
singles with odds
Form
streak L5 · best W5, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-10120 Aug7 Sept24 Sept11 Oct28 Oct

By sport

Baseball6-6 · 12 graded
−0.6
50%
NFL & NCAAF4-5-1 · 10 graded
−8.5
44%
Football1-4 · 5 graded
−23.0
20%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-9 · 17 graded
−2.3
47%
Handicap2-3-1 · 6 graded
−11.6
40%
Both teams to score0-2 · 2 graded
−54.2
0%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+3.7
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even9-13-1 · 23 graded
−11.5
41%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+23.6
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.898-7 · 15 graded
−5.6%
53%
1.90…2.291-4-1 · 6 graded
−50.3%
20%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −15.2 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • September 2026
    0.0 pp
    0-0-1 · -
  • October 2026
    −6.6 pp
    10-13 · 43%
    ROI −11.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:15 · 2 h before start
Lost
Serie A·
Parma
0:0
Udinese
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs +3@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
28:14
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.79Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
24:30
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State Aggies to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.78Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:00 · 7 h before start
odds 1.85Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:00 · 25 h before start
odds 7.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Premier League·
Nottingham Forest
0:1
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest to win
Open on Xexpected 14% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.76Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays +2.5
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 06:33 · 17 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.81Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 13:00 · 7 h before start
odds 1.86Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 16:00 · 10 h before start
odds 1.67Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
24:10
Iowa State Cyclones
BYU Cougars to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 17:00 · 7 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys −3
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 17:00 · 6 h before start
odds 1.60Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Liberty Flames
35:3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Liberty Flames −3@1.60
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.60 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.98Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:00 · 5 h before start
odds 2.43Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.43
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.43 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 19:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.81Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:0
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 20:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +3@1.85
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:30 · 6 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 23:28 · 51 min before start
odds 1.91Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks −3@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Aug, 13:04 · 6 h before start
odds 2.10Won
Premier League·
Arsenal
3:0
Coventry City
Both teams to score: no@2.10✓
Premier League·
Arsenal
3:0
Coventry City
Over 1.5@2.10✓
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 13:04 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
LaLiga·
Real Betis
1:0
Real Sociedad
Both teams to score: yes@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Aug, 13:04 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
Ligue 1·
Marseille
4:0
Strasbourg
Both teams to score: yes@1.83✕
Ligue 1·
Marseille
4:0
Strasbourg
Over 2.5@1.83✓
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u