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First Inning Lab | MLB Picks

@firstinninglab36 followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 3 h before start

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BaseballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index46.9#445 on the leaderboarddown 40 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
41.7%
expected 47.1%
Edge
−5.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 22.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
13
5-7-1
ROI
−2.3%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.20 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.501 Aug21 Aug9 Sept29 Sept19 Oct

By sport

Baseball4-6-1 · 11 graded
−7.5
40%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
+4.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-3 · 6 graded
−4.2
50%
Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
+1.7
50%
Team totals1-1 · 2 graded
−0.5
50%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−21.4
0%
Totals0-0-1 · 1 graded
0.0
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-2 · 3 graded
−30.4
33%
Even3-1-1 · 5 graded
+20.1
75%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
−4.0
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.893-2-1 · 6 graded
+4.2%
60%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −17.3 pp
    2-5-1 · 29%
    ROI −26.3%
  • September 2026
    −0.5 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • October 2026
    +18.8 pp
    2-1 · 67%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 17:52 · 6 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:56 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:33 · 2 h before start
odds 2.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 38% from the closing line+1.54 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 15:18 · 7 h before start
Won
MLB·
Washington Nationals
0:3
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies under 4.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 31 Aug, 16:27 · 9 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
10:1
New York Yankees
New York Yankees over 4.5
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 24 Aug, 22:25 · 3 h before start
odds 2.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
9:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies −1.5
Open on Xexpected 38% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Aug, 22:56 · 10 min before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
2:1
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 10 Aug, 22:56 · 10 min before start
Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
2:1
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win✕
MLB·
San Diego Padres
3:2
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8.5✓
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
6:5
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✓
Open on Xexpected 23% by model
Singleposted 9 Aug, 17:32 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
1:3
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.80 u
Parlay · 4posted 9 Aug, 17:32 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
1:3
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers +1.5✓
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
1:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5✓
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
4:2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5✕
MLB·
San Diego Padres
7:2
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres +1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 20% by model
Singleposted 7 Aug, 20:11 · 2 h before start
odds 1.49DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
4:5
Toronto Blue Jays
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Aug, 15:58 · 6 h before start
odds 1.62DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
7:3
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies −1.5
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.62 u
Singleposted 2 Aug, 07:21 · 10 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
0:8
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 8
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.00 u