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Zara Louis

@ZaraLouis13424919 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 10 h before start

Love in the air

TennisBaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballFootballHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index50.9#314 on the leaderboarddown 36 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
53.5%
expected 53.0%
Edge
+0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 49.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
416
222-193-1
ROI
−4.2%
on 381 picks with odds · max drawdown −27.60 u
Average odds
1.94
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W6, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-5-2.502.5531 Jul21 Aug10 Sept1 Oct22 Oct

By sport

Tennis123-107 · 230 graded
−0.8
53%
Baseball44-41 · 85 graded
−0.2
52%
NFL & NCAAF35-29-1 · 65 graded
+4.8
55%
Basketball17-13 · 30 graded
+6.6
57%
Football2-2 · 4 graded
−17.9
50%
Hockey1-1 · 2 graded
−16.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result190-161-1 · 352 graded
+0.8
54%
Handicap22-21 · 43 graded
+0.9
51%
Totals10-8 · 18 graded
−5.6
56%
Parlays0-3 · 3 graded
−2.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite80-35 · 115 graded
+2.7
70%
Even129-122-1 · 252 graded
+0.2
51%
Underdog13-33 · 46 graded
−3.1
28%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5046-16 · 62 graded
+1.9%
74%
1.50…1.8993-81 · 174 graded
−10.1%
53%
1.90…2.2951-39 · 90 graded
+14.2%
57%
2.30…3.4914-30-1 · 45 graded
−15.2%
32%
3.50+1-8 · 9 graded
−53.3%
11%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −2.0 pp
    91-92-1 · 50%
    ROI −12.4%
  • September 2026
    +6.8 pp
    72-50 · 59%
    ROI +11.3%
  • October 2026
    −2.5 pp
    59-51 · 54%
    ROI −6.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:02 · 4 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:02 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:02 · 7 h before start
odds 1.70Won
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.70 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:02 · 7 h before start
odds 1.53Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:39 · 7 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 1.56Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat −1.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 1.88Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn Nets −2.5@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 4.30Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls to win@4.30
Open on Xexpected 22% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 21 h before start
odds 2.34Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
New Orleans Pelicans to win@2.34
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 23 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors +6.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 1.73Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 2.24Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.24 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 03:11 · 20 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors −9.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:36 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics +7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 12:06 · 7 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Under 222.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 12:06 · 11 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 12:06 · 13 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 12:06 · 35 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 17 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 21 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −5.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 24 h before start
odds 1.98Lost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs −2.5@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 17 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 21 h before start
odds 2.60Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.60 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:48 · 24 h before start
odds 2.08Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.08 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 00:25 · 10 h before start
odds 1.67Void
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Jelena Ostapenko
void
Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds
Singleposted 20 Oct, 00:25 · 12 h before start
odds 1.55Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Arthur Fery
0:2
Borna Gojo
Arthur Fery to win@1.55
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 00:25 · 11 h before start
odds 1.61Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
2:0
Marcos Giron
Jan-Lennard Struff to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 00:25 · 5 h before start
odds 1.55Void
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Sonay Kartal
void
Kimberly Birrell
Kimberly Birrell to win@1.55
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds