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WinsfromLossestv

@WinsFromLosses345 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 35 min before start

“Analyzing every game with two lenses: 📊 Without psychology = pure trend science 🧠 With psychology = public pressure, line behavior Mastering both

TennisBaseballNFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index44.1#651 on the leaderboardup 36 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
42.3%
expected 48.6%
Edge
−6.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 27.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
27
11-15-1
ROI
−15.9%
on 20 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.00 u
Average odds
1.99
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1031 Jul24 Aug17 Sept11 Oct4 Nov

By sport

Tennis5-8-1 · 14 graded
−11.7
38%
Baseball2-5 · 7 graded
−12.8
29%
NFL & NCAAF4-2 · 6 graded
+12.9
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap9-4-1 · 14 graded
+15.7
69%
Match result2-8 · 10 graded
−26.6
20%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−50.4
0%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−2.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-2 · 2 graded
−67.5
0%
Even11-11-1 · 23 graded
+0.5
50%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−38.9
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-2 · 7 graded
+29.1%
71%
1.90…2.294-7 · 11 graded
−29.2%
36%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −15.8 pp
    3-8 · 27%
    ROI −45.3%
  • September 2026
    −3.3 pp
    5-5-1 · 50%
    ROI +17.6%
  • October 2026
    −49.9 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • November 2026
    +23.1 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 18:07 · 7 min before start
odds 1.77Won
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Alex Michelsen
0:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Alex Michelsen +4.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 15:49 · 16 min before start
odds 1.87Won
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Nuno Borges
2:0
Karen Khachanov
Nuno Borges +2.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 08:49 · 23 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
WTA 250 · Chennai Open·
Jeline Vandromme
2:0
Kyoka Okamura
Over 20 games@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 05:10 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
WTA 250 · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open·
Viktorija Golubic
0:2
Katie Boulter
Katie Boulter −2@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 08:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Jasmine Paolini
0:2
Sonay Kartal
Over 21.5 games@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 18:59 · 1 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
27:10
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Wyoming Cowboys +2
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 13:06 · 14 min before start
odds 2.15Lost
WTA 250 · Singapore Open·
Storm Hunter
1:2
Joanna Garland
Storm Hunter to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:42 · 18 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Temple Owls
9:27
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −24
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:42 · 18 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
44:21
Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion Monarchs +19.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 19:05 · 10 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Karen Khachanov
Alexander Zverev −5.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 18:14 · 5 min before start
odds 2.05Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
12:2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs −1.5@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 16:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
3:2
Alex Michelsen
Alex Michelsen +2@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 05:10 · 1 h before start
Push
ATP Challenger · Phan Thiet 3·
Cruz Hewitt
2:0
Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine
Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine +4
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 05:08 · 25 h before start
Lost
ATP Challenger · Phan Thiet 3·
Aditya Balsekar
0:2
Yuta Shimizu
Aditya Balsekar +5.5
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 23:12 · 18 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
41:13
Wisconsin Badgers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish −21.5
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 23:09 · 21 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
41:38
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville Cardinals +6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 14:43 · 16 min before start
odds 2.10Void
US Open · Men's Singles·
Marin Cilic
void
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev −2.5 sets@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds
Singleposted 24 Aug, 20:19 · 50 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
US Open · Men's Qualification·
Francesco Passaro
2:0
Felix Gill
Felix Gill to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 15:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Preseason·
Indianapolis Colts
6:34
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +4@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 17 Aug, 00:31 · 2 h before start
odds 2.45Lost
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Lorenzo Sonego
0:2
Frances Tiafoe
Lorenzo Sonego to win@2.45
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 15 Aug, 15:26 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
4:1
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.58✕
MLB·
New York Mets
5:4
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals to win@2.19✕
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.21✓
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
7:1
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants −1.5✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
4:8
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 3% by model
Singleposted 9 Aug, 00:54 · 56 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Aug, 00:42 · 57 min before start
odds 2.29Lost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:2
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win@2.29
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 18:07 · 13 min before start
odds 1.99Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
7:6
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.99
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 14:42 · 8 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
ATP Challenger · Kozerki, Poland·
Tomasz Berkieta
2:0
Facundo Mena
Facundo Mena to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 18:07 · 1 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:1
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 14:47 · 12 min before start
odds 1.87Won
ATP Challenger · Bonn, Germany·
Jamie Mackenzie
2:1
Max Dahlin
Jamie Mackenzie to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u