
WRALSportsFan
Tobacco Road sports insight -- all day, every day. UNC, NC State, Duke, Hurricanes and much more.
Open picks 1
Games not played yetWins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
- September 2026+5.3 pp1-0 · 100%
- October 2026−21.1 pp1-1 · 50%
By league
- NCAAF0-0--
- International Friendlies1-0100%+5.3
- Southern League · England0-10%−68.4
- Twenty20 Internationals1-0100%+26.1
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