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Pikey's Picks

@The_Pikey_6572 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 2 h before start

I do this for the love of the game ⚽🏈🥊⚾ 🏀 🏒 I will never ever sell my picks

FootballBaseballHockeyNFL & NCAAFBasketballTennis
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Tipster index51.9#271 on the leaderboardup 2 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
55.6%
expected 54.5%
Edge
+1.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 48.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
124
69-55
ROI
−2.8%
on 76 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.29 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W7, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-20231 Jul21 Aug11 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Football53-29 · 82 graded
+9.2
65%
Baseball6-11 · 17 graded
−19.1
35%
Hockey6-6 · 12 graded
−2.4
50%
NFL & NCAAF3-6 · 9 graded
−15.5
33%
Basketball0-2 · 2 graded
−49.3
0%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
−10.6
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result40-28 · 68 graded
+3.1
59%
Parlays6-15 · 21 graded
−13.0
29%
Handicap6-8 · 14 graded
−9.1
43%
Both teams to score8-3 · 11 graded
+13.3
73%
Totals8-0 · 8 graded
+26.6
100%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−55.5
0%
Double chance1-0 · 1 graded
+31.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite31-4 · 35 graded
+18.4
89%
Even31-29 · 60 graded
−1.9
52%
Underdog1-7 · 8 graded
−13.8
13%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5012-1 · 13 graded
+25.1%
92%
1.50…1.8926-16 · 42 graded
+4.0%
62%
1.90…2.294-9 · 13 graded
−35.8%
31%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
3.50+1-3 · 4 graded
-
25%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −5.1 pp
    16-13 · 55%
    ROI −19.7%
  • September 2026
    +6.1 pp
    24-15 · 62%
    ROI +12.7%
  • October 2026
    +1.0 pp
    29-27 · 52%
    ROI −5.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:08 · 4 h before start
odds 1.33Lost
Bundesliga·
VfB Stuttgart
2:3
Borussia M'gladbach
VfB Stuttgart to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:37 · 4 h before start
odds 2.70Lost
Europa League · League Stage·
Celtic
1:2
Celta Vigo
Celtic to win@2.70
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 00:53 · 18 h before start
Lost
Conference League · League Stage·
FC Midtjylland
0:1
St.Truiden
FC Midtjylland to win
Open on Xexpected 77% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 00:53 · 16 h before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Union St.Gilloise
4:0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Union St.Gilloise to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.44 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:40 · 49 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:37 · 1 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Oct, 17:11 · 2 h before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Club Brugge
3:0
Lens
Club Brugge to win✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Club Brugge
3:0
Lens
Club Brugge over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:48 · 1 h before start
odds 4.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Napoli
4:3
Bodoe/Glimt
Bodoe/Glimt to win
Open on Xexpected 20% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:43 · 5 h before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Napoli
4:3
Bodoe/Glimt
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 13:05 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83Won
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
4:0
Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma to win✓
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
4:0
Slovan Bratislava
Under 4.5✓
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:10 · 1 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:15 · 44 min before start
odds 2.07Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche −1.5@2.07
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 12:09 · 5 h before start
Lost
Süper Lig·
Trabzonspor
2:0
Beşiktaş
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:21 · 2 h before start
Won
Serie A·
AC Milan
3:2
Atalanta
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:21 · 23 min before start
Won
Eredivisie·
FC Groningen
2:5
Ajax
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 13:18 · 12 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans +2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Under 42.5✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:36 · 3 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Nottingham Forest
0:1
Arsenal
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:36 · 23 min before start
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Brighton
5:0
Crystal Palace
Brighton to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.42 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:44 · 30 min before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Ligue 1·
Strasbourg
1:3
Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.44 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 12:45 · 6 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
AS Roma
2:0
Genoa
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 21:27 · 4 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Parlay · 2posted 16 Oct, 16:57 · 2 h before start
Lost
Ligue 1·
Le Mans
0:3
Toulouse
Both teams to score: yes✕
Serie A·
Frosinone
4:2
Sassuolo
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 15:28 · 3 h before start
odds 5.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Eredivisie·
SC Heerenveen
4:0
Excelsior
Excelsior to win
Open on Xexpected 19% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:24 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
2:4
Utah Mammoth
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 15 Oct, 15:52 · 52 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Lyon
3:2
Crystal Palace
Both teams to score: yes✓
Conference League · League Stage·
Atalanta
3:1
Pafos FC
Atalanta to win✓
Conference League · League Stage·
Hearts
1:1
FC Nordsjaelland
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 14:40 · 4 h before start
odds 3.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Hoffenheim
2:3
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş to win
Open on Xexpected 25% from the closing line+2.80 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 13:26 · 3 h before start
Lost
Conference League · League Stage·
KF Egnatia
1:1
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland to win
Open on Xexpected 21% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:12 · 3 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:04 · 1 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
3:7
Florida Panthers
Columbus Blue Jackets to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 13 Oct, 18:25 · 34 min before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Inter
3:4
Club Brugge
Inter to win✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Inter
3:4
Club Brugge
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 47% by model