The Puck Model 🏒

@ThePuckModel154 followersfirst pick 21 Octusually posts 8 h before start

All Glory to God 🙌 NHL betting model. Poisson + shot-quality ratings. Picks posted pre-game, every result tracked in units. https://t.co/FZqqYn1djh

Hockey

CompareRSS

Tipster index64.3needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

83.3%

expected 40.4%

Edge

+42.9 pp

over expectation

Graded

5-1

ROI

+101.3%

on 6 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u

Average odds

2.45

singles with odds

Form

streak W2 · best W4, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Hockey5-1 · 6 graded

+42.9

83%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result4-1 · 5 graded

+37.5

80%

Handicap1-0 · 1 graded

+70.0

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even2-0 · 2 graded

+49.6

100%

Underdog3-1 · 4 graded

+39.6

75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded

100%

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded

100%

2.30…3.493-1 · 4 graded

75%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).