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SwayyCFB

@SwayyCFB550 followersfirst pick 1 Septusually posts 26 h before start

• Certified Ball Knower | CFB Analyst 🤓 📈 2026: +60u | 71%| 184-75 📊 Data-Driven Picks & Full Analysis CFB • NFL • MLB • NBA || 🔪 Sharp Plays ONLY

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index67.5#20 on the leaderboarddown 7 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat to win@1.98
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +7.5@1.64
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Atlantic Owls
-:-
Rice Owls
Rice Owls +10.5@1.62
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
-:-
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners −2.5@1.56
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
-:-
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies +17.5@1.57
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
-:-
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks −2.5@1.91
Hit rate
59.1%
expected 48.0%
Edge
+11.1 pp
hit rate at least 51.3% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
110
65-45 · 11 pending
ROI
+5.4%
on 74 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.95 u
Average odds
1.68
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-505103 Sept15 Sept27 Sept9 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF60-42 · 102 graded
+11.6
59%
Baseball4-2 · 6 graded
+9.0
67%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−8.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap26-23 · 49 graded
−1.0
53%
Parlays11-15 · 26 graded
+18.4
42%
Match result18-2 · 20 graded
+32.6
90%
Totals8-3 · 11 graded
+14.4
73%
Team totals2-2 · 4 graded
−4.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite21-9 · 30 graded
+6.6
70%
Even32-21 · 53 graded
+9.1
60%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+61.9
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.506-2 · 8 graded
+6.6%
75%
1.50…1.8931-18 · 49 graded
+2.8%
63%
1.90…2.297-4 · 11 graded
+27.6%
64%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +13.3 pp
    38-22 · 63%
    ROI +5.0%
  • October 2026
    +8.4 pp
    27-23 · 54%
    ROI +5.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:50 · 2 h before start
odds 1.98Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:50 · 4 h before start
odds 1.64Pending
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +7.5@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.56Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
-:-
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners −2.5@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.57Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
-:-
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies +17.5@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.91Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
-:-
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.95Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona State Sun Devils
-:-
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State Wildcats −3.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.62Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Atlantic Owls
-:-
Rice Owls
Rice Owls +10.5@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.62Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-:-
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes −3.5@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.82Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
-:-
Virginia Tech Hokies
Clemson Tigers −2.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.61Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
-:-
Vanderbilt Commodores
Kentucky Wildcats −7.5@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:43 · 4 days before start
odds 1.82Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
-:-
Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals −9.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:18 · 8 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −2.5@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:18 · 10 h before start
odds 1.61Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 19:49 · 4 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −6.5@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 19:49 · 4 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 51.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:45 · 2 h before start
odds 1.50Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −2.5@1.50
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds+0.50 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:45 · 2 h before start
odds 1.47Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Over 48.5@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.47 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:45 · 6 h before start
odds 1.96Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers −1.5@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.96 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:07 · 1 h before start
odds 2.28Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win@2.28
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.28 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:07 · 5 h before start
odds 1.57Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.57 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:07 · 5 h before start
odds 1.69Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:07 · 5 h before start
odds 1.58Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Under 42.5@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.58 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 22:09 · 1 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
BYU Cougars under 17.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.54Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
49:22
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State Panthers +14.5@1.54
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.60Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
35:24
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks over 23.5@1.60
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.60 u
Parlay · 2posted 17 Oct, 14:07 · 5 h before start
odds 2.59Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −6.5@1.68✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
34:24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Over 51.5@1.54✓
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 16 Oct, 15:01 · 8 h before start
odds 4.12Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −3.5@1.56✕
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +6.5@1.64✓
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Over 45.5@1.61✕
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:16 · 3 days before start
odds 1.68Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
21:24
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats −6.5@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:16 · 3 days before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:16 · 3 days before start
odds 1.60Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −6.5@1.60
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u