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SubParLay

@SubParLay391 followersfirst pick 20 Septusually posts 23 min before start

ball knowledger. 🥊🏀🏈

NFL & NCAAFBasketball
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Tipster index56.0needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
71.4%
expected 55.5%
Edge
+15.9 pp
over expectation
Graded
7
5-2
ROI
+23.6%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.73
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.5119 Sept27 Sept5 Oct13 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-1 · 5 graded
+22.8
80%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−1.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result5-2 · 7 graded
+15.9
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−11.2
50%
Even4-1 · 5 graded
+26.8
80%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-2 · 6 graded
+12.4%
67%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −9.2 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • October 2026
    +25.9 pp
    4-1 · 80%
    ROI +39.8%

By league

  • NFL3-175%+18.9
  • NBA1-150%−1.4
  • NCAAF1-0100%+38.8

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 23 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 23 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:56 · 4 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:56 · 4 min before start
odds 1.56Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
27:6
Texas A&M Aggies
Missouri Tigers to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:13 · 12 min before start
odds 1.69Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 17:06 · 3 h before start
odds 1.56Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
27:35
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:57 · 3 h before start
odds 1.67Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
20:13
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u