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SignalBase | Model Picks

@SignalBasePicks17 followersfirst pick 31 Augusually posts 7 h before start

Model-driven picks: NHL, NFL, CFB, NBA & more. Every posted pick graded, every closing line tracked. Full record below. Discord: https://t.co/2Pz4mbmDRW

HockeyNFL & NCAAFBaseball
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Tipster index45.5#569 on the leaderboarddown 30 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Michigan Broncos
-:-
Bowling Green Falcons
Under 44.5@1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
-:-
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars −8.5
Hit rate
45.6%
expected 49.4%
Edge
−3.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
46
21-25 · 2 pending
ROI
−7.8%
on 34 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.42 u
Average odds
2.02
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-1030 Aug14 Sept29 Sept14 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Hockey12-16 · 28 graded
−4.7
43%
NFL & NCAAF8-8 · 16 graded
−1.6
50%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
−7.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals13-12 · 25 graded
−0.1
52%
Match result8-11 · 19 graded
−4.5
42%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−59.6
0%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−25.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-0 · 3 graded
+33.3
100%
Even17-22 · 39 graded
−6.2
44%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
−1.8
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-3 · 8 graded
+12.2%
63%
1.90…2.2910-11 · 21 graded
−7.0%
48%
2.30…3.491-4 · 5 graded
−43.0%
20%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −51.6 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • September 2026
    −3.4 pp
    3-3 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −2.5 pp
    18-21 · 46%
    ROI −4.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 23:30 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:0
Calgary Flames
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 18:15 · 4 days before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
-:-
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars −8.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 12:00 · 3 days before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Michigan Broncos
-:-
Bowling Green Falcons
Under 44.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 20:55 · 6 h before start
odds 1.70Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
0:2
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.70 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 19:35 · 6 h before start
odds 2.36Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
4:1
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators to win@2.36
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 17:20 · 7 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
1:5
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:05 · 3 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
3:4
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 01:25 · 35 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:4
Minnesota Wild
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:44 · 16 min before start
odds 1.72Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Utah Mammoth to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 23:20 · 10 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
24:7
USC Trojans
Under 52.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 24 Oct, 22:55 · 5 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
Over 6.5✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 19:28 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 19:15 · 15 min before start
odds 2.70Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:1
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings to win@2.70
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:50 · 10 min before start
odds 2.05Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
4:5
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
odds 2.06Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win@2.06
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:20 · 7 h before start
odds 2.60Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:4
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:47 · 26 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Under 44.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:05 · 23 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
10:16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 45@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 23:25 · 18 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
4:5
Anaheim Ducks
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:24 · 9 h before start
odds 2.07Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@2.07
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 12:00 · 29 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Central Michigan Chippewas
27:28
Miami RedHawks
Over 39.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:35 · 25 min before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:05 · 26 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
1:4
Montreal Canadiens
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:40 · 6 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:25 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
2:3
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:15 · 35 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
Under 54.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:23 · 7 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:6
Toronto Maple Leafs
Columbus Blue Jackets to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:23 · 7 h before start
odds 1.92Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
New Jersey Devils to win@1.92
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.92 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:23 · 9 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
4:3
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Detroit Red Wings to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:23 · 10 h before start
odds 1.98Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
2:6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u