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Rob Robbins

@RobRobbinsPicks1.9K followersfirst pick 13 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Just a guy posting his bets. MLB round robins + daily betting cards. Account created May 1st 2026.

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
Tipster index54.7needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
57.1%
expected 44.8%
Edge
+12.4 pp
over expectation
Graded
7
4-3
ROI
-
on 3 picks with odds
Average odds
1.84
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.512 Aug29 Aug15 Sept1 Oct18 Oct

By sport

Baseball2-3 · 5 graded
−5.7
40%
NFL & NCAAF2-0 · 2 graded
+57.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-1 · 4 graded
+36.3
75%
Match result1-2 · 3 graded
−19.6
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even4-2 · 6 graded
+17.5
67%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−18.4
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

  • August 2026
    −2.5 pp
    2-2 · 50%
  • September 2026
    +58.7 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +18.9 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:21 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:40 · 19 min before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5
Open on Xexpected 18% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 23:25 · 50 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 25 Aug, 21:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.78DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
4:1
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 20:03 · 6 h before start
Won
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
2:4
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians −1
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 23 Aug, 16:24 · 4 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:19
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 13 Aug, 16:45 · 25 min before start
odds 1.93Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
3:0
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u