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ProphetAiQ Sports Predictions

@ProphetAiQ27 followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 1 h before start

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FootballNFL & NCAAFBaseball
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Tipster index43.1#355 on the leaderboarddown 58 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
41.3%
expected 45.8%
Edge
−4.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
104
43-61
ROI
−15.1%
on 89 picks with odds · max drawdown −17.23 u
Average odds
2.10
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W7, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-204 Sept13 Sept23 Sept2 Oct11 Oct

By sport

Football28-42 · 70 graded
−2.9
40%
NFL & NCAAF13-18 · 31 graded
−10.1
42%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+15.8
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals20-32 · 52 graded
−10.9
38%
Match result21-28 · 49 graded
+1.1
43%
Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+16.5
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-2 · 8 graded
+10.3
75%
Even31-40 · 71 graded
−5.7
44%
Underdog6-19 · 25 graded
−5.8
24%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.50…1.8914-7 · 21 graded
+13.0%
67%
1.90…2.2919-32 · 51 graded
−26.3%
37%
2.30…3.491-5 · 6 graded
−60.8%
17%
3.50+2-5 · 7 graded
+8.6%
29%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −6.7 pp
    28-48 · 37%
    ROI −19.5%
  • October 2026
    +1.5 pp
    15-13 · 54%
    ROI −5.5%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.50Won
MLS·
St. Louis City
6:2
LA Galaxy
St. Louis City to win@1.50
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds+0.50 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 17:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
LaLiga·
Racing Santander
2:2
Valencia
Over 2.8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:02 · 1 h before start
odds 1.50Won
LaLiga·
Real Betis
5:2
Osasuna
Real Betis to win@1.50
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds+0.50 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:02 · 1 h before start
odds 2.17Won
Premier League·
Liverpool
0:3
Manchester City
Manchester City to win@2.17
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.17 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
LaLiga·
Real Sociedad
3:2
Deportivo A Coruna
Under 2.8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:31 · 1 h before start
odds 2.12Lost
Premier League·
Hull City
2:2
Everton
Everton to win@2.12
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
Premier League·
Crystal Palace
3:1
Nottingham Forest
Over 2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 01:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.60Lost
MLS·
Los Angeles FC
1:1
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 2.5@1.60
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 00:16 · 1 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
MLS·
Colorado Rapids
1:1
San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:01 · 1 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLS·
Minnesota United
2:2
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:01 · 1 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
MLS·
Sporting Kansas City
3:3
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.94Won
MLS·
Austin FC
1:4
Nashville SC
Nashville SC to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:01 · 1 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
MLS·
Atlanta United
1:3
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
MLS·
Philadelphia Union
2:1
Real Salt Lake
Over 3.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:01 · 1 h before start
odds 2.17Won
MLS·
Charlotte
3:2
FC Dallas
Over 3.5@2.17
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.17 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:01 · 5 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:02 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
Premier League·
Manchester United
1:1
Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:02 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
3:0
Getafe
Over 3.8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 12:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.94Won
LaLiga·
Deportivo Alaves
1:2
Atletico Madrid
Over 2.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 12:31 · 1 h before start
odds 2.06Lost
Premier League·
Ipswich Town
2:1
Fulham
Under 2.5@2.06
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 12:31 · 1 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
2:2
Brentford
Brentford to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 12:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.56Lost
Premier League·
Chelsea
5:1
AFC Bournemouth
Under 3.5@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 10:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.42Won
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:1
Leeds United
Arsenal to win@1.42
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds+0.42 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 15:04 · 8 h before start
odds 1.59Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:02 · 8 h before start
odds 1.42Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
FIU Golden Panthers to win@1.42
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds+0.42 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 23:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
MLS·
Chicago Fire
3:1
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 00:01 · 1 h before start
odds 1.56Won
MLS·
Seattle Sounders FC
2:1
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders FC to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 15:04 · 9 h before start
odds 1.79Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
New Mexico State Aggies
34:13
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
New Mexico State Aggies to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 21:31 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLS·
Columbus Crew
2:1
Inter Miami CF
Over 3.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:02 · 7 h before start
odds 1.88Won
MLS·
Columbus Crew
2:1
Inter Miami CF
Under 3.5@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.88 u