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Prediction Market Insights

@PredictInsights24.1K followersfirst pick 15 Septusually posts 22 h before start

The fastest updates on the most important prediction markets.

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
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Tipster index44.4#332 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
-:-
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Hit rate
45.5%
expected 56.0%
Edge
−10.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 24.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
5-6 · 1 pending
ROI
-
posts no odds
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W3, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1017 Sept23 Sept29 Sept5 Oct12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-4 · 8 graded
−1.6
50%
Baseball1-2 · 3 graded
−34.4
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-5 · 8 graded
−14.9
38%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+1.2
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−16.6
50%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+40.3
100%
Underdog1-3 · 4 graded
−14.1
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +61.6 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    −17.7 pp
    4-6 · 40%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:00 · 26 h before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
-:-
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:40 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 01:13 · 23 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:13 · 21 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:10 · 24 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Over 51.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:10 · 22 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 15:35 · 8 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox +1.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 01:06 · 4 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears −2.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:03 · 11 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres +1.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints −1.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 15:00 · 2 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model