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Zach

@PicksbyZach24 followersfirst pick 12 Octusually posts 2 h before start

🎯 All Picks Posted For Free 🏆 Tracking every play 📈 NFL | NBA | MLB | NHL | CFB | CBB

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Tipster index32.3#612 on the leaderboarddown 94 this weekdeveloping sample

Deleted picks

After posting, the author deleted 14 picks from X: 9 lost, 5 won.

Deleted picks stay in the stats: the index and hit rate include them. How we check

Hit rate
30.0%
expected 52.1%
Edge
−22.1 pp
hit rate at most 48.3% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
20
6-14
ROI
−47.0%
on 20 picks with odds · max drawdown −9.41 u
Average odds
1.94
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W1, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2011 Oct14 Oct16 Oct19 Oct21 Oct

By sport

Football3-6 · 9 graded
−22.3
33%
Basketball2-5 · 7 graded
−18.7
29%
NFL & NCAAF1-3 · 4 graded
−27.3
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals1-7 · 8 graded
−44.8
13%
Handicap4-3 · 7 graded
+1.7
57%
Match result1-4 · 5 graded
−19.1
20%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-3 · 3 graded
−61.2
0%
Even6-9 · 15 graded
−13.7
40%
Underdog0-2 · 2 graded
−26.2
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-10 · 15 graded
−42.7%
33%
1.90…2.291-2 · 3 graded
-
33%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −22.1 pp
    6-14 · 30%
    ROI −47.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:59 · 31 min before start
odds 1.65Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over 237.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:59 · 1 min before start
odds 1.63Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Over 230.5@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:59 · 31 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +11.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:59 · 31 min before start
odds 1.57Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Over 215.5@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:40 · 19 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:40 · 3 days before start
odds 1.77Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:33 · 2 h before start
Deletedodds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
66:27
Colorado State Rams
Texas State Bobcats −14.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:33 · 2 h before start
Deletedodds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Old Dominion Monarchs
15:23
Georgia Southern Eagles
Over 44.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:15 · 3 h before start
Deletedodds 2.10Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Bodoe/Glimt
1:0
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:15 · 30 min before start
Deletedodds 1.54Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
3:6
Liverpool
Under 3.5@1.54
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:15 · 3 h before start
Deletedodds 1.83Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:1
AEK Athens
Under 2.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:15 · 3 h before start
Deletedodds 1.74Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
2:4
Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain +0.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:15 · 30 min before start
Deletedodds 1.65Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Feyenoord
3:2
Como 1907
Feyenoord +0.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:47 · 2 h before start
Deletedodds 3.30Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
114:112
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win@3.30
Open on Xexpected 29% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:47 · 1 h before start
Deletedodds 4.05Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Toronto Raptors
148:98
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win@4.05
Open on Xexpected 24% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:47 · 4 h before start
Deletedodds 2.00Won
NBA · Pre-season·
LA Lakers
89:101
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 16:26 · 2 h before start
Deletedodds 1.71Won
Championship·
Bristol City
0:1
Blackburn Rovers
Blackburn Rovers +0.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 15:34 · 4 h before start
Deletedodds 1.74Lost
Primeira Liga·
Famalicao
1:4
Alverca
Under 2.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 15:05 · 4 h before start
Deletedodds 1.65Lost
LaLiga·
Levante
3:3
Sevilla
Under 2.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 15:05 · 1 h before start
Deletedodds 1.56Lost
Serie A·
Atalanta
3:1
Venezia
Venezia +1.5@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u