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OutsiderBetting

@Outsiderbet7772.4K followersfirst pick 24 Augusually posts 3 h before start

Leader of Team Gimme That!!! 🔥Daily FREE MLB/Tennis/CS2 Plays | Sharp Plays over Volume | Track Record + DubClub VIP💰

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Tipster index58.5#110 on the leaderboarddown 2 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
57.1%
expected 43.8%
Edge
+13.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 36.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
14
8-6
ROI
+34.9%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
2.17
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.523 Aug7 Sept22 Sept7 Oct21 Oct

By sport

Baseball4-4 · 8 graded
+10.7
50%
Tennis2-0 · 2 graded
+42.7
100%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−8.4
50%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−14.0
0%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+46.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result6-4 · 10 graded
+17.8
60%
Handicap2-0 · 2 graded
+38.5
100%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−17.6
0%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−50.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+35.1
100%
Even4-3 · 7 graded
+7.8
57%
Underdog2-2 · 4 graded
+19.9
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.90…2.292-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
2.30…3.492-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +12.9 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • September 2026
    +16.7 pp
    5-3 · 63%
    ROI +42.3%
  • October 2026
    +6.8 pp
    2-2 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:51 · 8 min before start
odds 1.78Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +3.5@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:31 · 17 h before start
odds 1.75Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Mariano Navone
0:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.75 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 17:39 · 6 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Under 6.5✕
Open on Xexpected 18% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:19 · 10 min before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 18:51 · 1 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
2:10
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees to win@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 21:47 · 18 min before start
odds 2.18Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.18
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.18 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 21:48 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
Athletics
7:3
Los Angeles Angels
Under 9.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 17:36 · 6 h before start
odds 2.85Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:3
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win@2.85
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds+1.85 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 22:17 · 27 min before start
odds 2.08Won
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
2:3
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.08 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 16:03 · 8 h before start
odds 2.85Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:8
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win@2.85
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds+1.85 u
Singleposted 21 Sept, 19:14 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
4:3
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 00:03 · 32 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 26 Aug, 07:01 · 36 h before start
Lost
Bolivia · Primera Division·
Always Ready
2:2
Aurora
Aurora to win
Open on Xexpected 14% by model
Singleposted 24 Aug, 18:30 · 2 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Qualification·
Greet Minnen
0:2
Jeline Vandromme
Jeline Vandromme to win
Open on Xexpected 60% by model