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Midwest Picks

@MidWestPick272 followersfirst pick 29 Augusually posts 17 min before start

⛳ Golf • 🏈 CFB/NFL • 🏀 CBB Low volume. Selective plays. No bullshit. Just the card. Every play posted. Every result tracked. CBB 184-121-4 | Golf 35-23-7

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index64.0#55 on the leaderboarddown 21 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
65.5%
expected 51.2%
Edge
+14.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 50.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
30
19-10-1
ROI
+16.7%
on 24 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.11 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W10, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202428 Aug13 Sept28 Sept13 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF15-7 · 22 graded
+16.4
68%
Baseball3-2-1 · 6 graded
+10.7
60%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−0.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap10-3 · 13 graded
+26.3
77%
Match result4-5 · 9 graded
−5.3
44%
Totals5-2-1 · 8 graded
+17.1
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+36.5
100%
Even17-10-1 · 28 graded
+12.6
63%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.897-7-1 · 15 graded
−6.3%
50%
1.90…2.296-2 · 8 graded
+45.6%
75%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +48.0 pp
    1-0-1 · 100%
  • September 2026
    +28.9 pp
    9-2 · 82%
    ROI +35.1%
  • October 2026
    +2.8 pp
    9-8 · 53%
    ROI +4.8%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:01 · 28 min before start
odds 1.89Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
87:103
LA Lakers
LA Clippers to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 02:58 · 2 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
129:136
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 19:29 · 1 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
13:10
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes −7
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:08 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 53.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:43 · 46 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:43 · 46 min before start
odds 1.80Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:53 · 6 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
17:20
Indiana Hoosiers
Nebraska Cornhuskers +8.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:29 · 30 min before start
odds 1.79Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:29 · 45 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +1.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:35 · 25 min before start
odds 2.30Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.30 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:13 · 6 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 51.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:22 · 2 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:44 · 16 min before start
odds 1.89Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Over 48.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 19:13 · 17 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
14:31
Ohio State Buckeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 23:19 · 41 min before start
odds 1.98Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats +2.5@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:43 · 17 min before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.87 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:43 · 32 min before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns +2.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 00:10 · 5 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
27:7
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 23:49 · 30 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 20:03 · 2 min before start
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16:23
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 20:03 · 22 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
31:34
Baltimore Ravens
Over 53.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 22:54 · 36 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
27:41
Oregon Ducks
Over 60.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 20:00 · 4 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
20:13
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:51 · 9 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
3:9
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 23:10 · 20 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
24:27
SMU Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 23:00 · 30 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
24:27
SMU Mustangs
Over 54.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 02:13 · 16 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
California Golden Bears
24:45
UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 1 Sept, 23:22 · 17 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
3:6
Miami Marlins
Kansas City Royals to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Aug, 23:07 · 12 min before start
odds 1.83Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
5:7
Cincinnati Reds
Over 9@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 23:10 · 5 min before start
odds 1.87Push
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:3
Texas Rangers
Over 8@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.00 u