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MarsPicks

@MarsPicks190 followersfirst pick 17 Octusually posts 21 min before start

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Open picks 1

Games not played yet
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Luca Van Assche
live
Lorenzo Musetti
Luca Van Assche to win@3.10
Hit rate
38.5%
expected 50.3%
Edge
−11.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 20.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
13
5-8 · 1 pending
ROI
+23.5%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
2.04
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1016 Oct18 Oct20 Oct21 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF0-5 · 5 graded
−52.6
0%
Tennis3-2 · 5 graded
+14.5
60%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+12.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals3-3 · 6 graded
−3.8
50%
Handicap0-3 · 3 graded
−51.1
0%
Match result2-1 · 3 graded
+19.4
67%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−35.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-3 · 3 graded
−62.9
0%
Even4-4 · 8 graded
+1.1
50%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+61.3
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.292-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −11.8 pp
    5-8 · 38%
    ROI +23.5%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:27 · 18 min before start
odds 3.10Pending
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Luca Van Assche
live
Lorenzo Musetti
Luca Van Assche to win@3.10
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:55 · 14 min before start
odds 2.46Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Tallon Griekspoor
2:1
Jiri Lehecka
Over 27.5 games@2.46
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.46 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 22 Oct, 22:57 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears to win✓
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 02:04 · 25 min before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
Under 215.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 13:32 · 2 h before start
odds 1.94Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Corentin Moutet
2:0
Felix Balshaw
Corentin Moutet to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 23:19 · 2 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 23:19 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 230.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:52 · 13 min before start
odds 2.20Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Daniel Altmaier
2:1
Titouan Droguet
Titouan Droguet −1.5 sets@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.73Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Benjamin Bonzi
2:1
Cameron Norrie
Over 22.5 games@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:09 · 21 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
10:21
New Mexico Lobos
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:09 · 21 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Diego State Aztecs
26:23
Fresno State Bulldogs
Under 45.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:13 · 16 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:13 · 16 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish −10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:22 · 13 min before start
odds 2.31Lost
WTA Challenger · Rovereto, Italy·
Bianca Andreescu
2:0
Lucie Havlickova
Lucie Havlickova to win@2.31
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u