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Arman Mando

@MandoArman52300 followersfirst pick 20 Octusually posts 2 h before start
FootballBasketballTennisHockey
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Tipster index43.5#666 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
27.3%
expected 39.4%
Edge
−12.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 11.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
3-8
ROI
−43.0%
on 11 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.73 u
Average odds
2.90
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.5019 Oct22 Oct26 Oct29 Oct1 Nov

By sport

Football1-4 · 5 graded
−9.6
20%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
−2.1
50%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−39.5
0%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−1.2
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-7 · 9 graded
−20.4
22%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
+24.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+26.7
100%
Even0-3 · 3 graded
−43.3
0%
Underdog1-5 · 6 graded
−9.6
17%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.290-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
3.50+1-4 · 5 graded
−27.8%
20%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −9.5 pp
    3-6 · 33%
    ROI −30.3%
  • November 2026
    −24.0 pp
    0-2 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:21 · 4 h before start
odds 4.00Lost
Ligue 1·
Strasbourg
5:1
Auxerre
Draw@4.00
Open on Xexpected 24% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:21 · 4 h before start
odds 3.93Lost
Ligue 1·
Strasbourg
5:1
Auxerre
Auxerre −3.93@3.93
Open on Xexpected 24% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:22 · 2 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Aston Villa −2@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:22 · 2 h before start
odds 3.61Won
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Draw@3.61
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds+2.61 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:22 · 2 h before start
odds 3.64Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Fulham −3.64@3.64
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 17:41 · 2 h before start
odds 1.53Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
95:76
Fenerbahçe
Real Madrid −1.53@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 17:41 · 2 h before start
odds 2.37Lost
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
95:76
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe −2.37@2.37
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 06:27 · 8 h before start
odds 4.80Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
0:2
Taylor Fritz
Pierre-Hugues Herbert −4.8@4.80
Open on Xexpected 20% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 06:27 · 8 h before start
odds 1.13Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
0:2
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz −1.13@1.13
Open on Xexpected 84% from odds+0.13 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:21 · 2 h before start
odds 2.27Lost
Finland · Liiga·
TPS
4:3
Ilves
TPS −2.27@2.27
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:21 · 2 h before start
odds 2.57Lost
Finland · Liiga·
TPS
4:3
Ilves
Ilves −2.57@2.57
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u