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Lenzo Prono

@Lenzoprono1.7K followersfirst pick 9 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Pronostiqueur Tout se passe ici : https://t.co/sHclXJCKG2

BaseballTennisNFL & NCAAFFootballBasketball
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Tipster index48.0#412 on the leaderboardup 9 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
54.5%
expected 56.5%
Edge
−1.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
33
18-15
ROI
−11.2%
on 19 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.21 u
Average odds
1.71
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-109 Aug27 Aug13 Sept1 Oct18 Oct

By sport

Baseball6-5 · 11 graded
−2.0
55%
Tennis5-2 · 7 graded
+19.6
71%
NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−10.7
50%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
−0.4
60%
Basketball1-3 · 4 graded
−28.3
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result16-12 · 28 graded
+2.6
57%
Handicap0-3 · 3 graded
−65.6
0%
Double chance1-0 · 1 graded
+30.8
100%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+29.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-4 · 11 graded
−1.4
64%
Even8-9 · 17 graded
−8.3
47%
Underdog2-2 · 4 graded
+15.5
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.896-8 · 14 graded
−27.8%
43%
1.90…2.292-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −17.9 pp
    3-5 · 38%
    ROI −37.2%
  • September 2026
    +3.0 pp
    5-3 · 63%
  • October 2026
    +3.2 pp
    10-7 · 59%
    ROI +9.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 06:14 · 15 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 20:54 · 3 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 06:32 · 3 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Sonay Kartal
2:0
Jelena Ostapenko
Jelena Ostapenko to win
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 14:47 · 1 h before start
Won
Turkiye · BSL·
Karsiyaka
95:79
Cayirova
Karsiyaka to win
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:59 · 3 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 20:06 · 4 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 06:28 · 1 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Francisco Cerundolo
1:2
Jakub Mensik
Jakub Mensik to win
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:14 · 2 h before start
odds 1.62DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Ligue 1·
AS Monaco
2:2
Toulouse
AS Monaco to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 13:04 · 56 min before start
Won
Premier League·
Aston Villa
2:2
Brentford
Brentford or draw
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 21:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:45 · 1 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 11:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.44 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 08:41 · 1 h before start
Lost
Spain · Liga ACB·
Basquet Coruna
104:101
Bilbao Basket
Bilbao Basket to win
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 19:57 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:0
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:36 · 1 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
0:3
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 18:03 · 27 min before start
Lost
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Saski Baskonia
87:76
Olimpia Milano
Olimpia Milano to win
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:44 · 5 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 06:06 · 1 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Korea Open, Seoul·
Jelena Ostapenko
2:0
Anastasia Zakharova
Jelena Ostapenko to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 19:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
9:2
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals +1.5
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:22 · 1 h before start
odds 1.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:1
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.65 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 14:36 · 13 min before start
Won
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Ben Shelton
Jiri Lehecka to win
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 17 Sept, 18:03 · 56 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Viktoria Plzen
0:3
Union St.Gilloise
Union St.Gilloise or draw✓
Europa League · League Stage·
Viktoria Plzen
0:3
Union St.Gilloise
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:10 · 59 min before start
Won
WTA · Sao Paulo Open·
Elina Avanesyan
0:2
Alina Charaeva
Alina Charaeva to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 09:43 · 2 h before start
Lost
Champions League · Qualification·
VEF Riga
95:102
Dziki Warsaw
VEF Riga +4
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 1 Sept, 05:55 · 17 h before start
odds 1.73DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
4:3
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 21:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.68DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:5
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.68 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 18:13 · 47 min before start
odds 1.46DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Aston Villa
0:1
Arsenal
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.46 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 14:01 · 1 h before start
Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Qinwen Zheng
2:1
Kristina Liutova
Kristina Liutova to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 30 Aug, 23:47 · 17 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Thiago Agustin Tirante
2:3
Adrian Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino to win
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 21 Aug, 06:29 · 19 h before start
Lost
NFL · Preseason·
Denver Broncos
13:33
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model