Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS RomaAS Roma draw no bet@2.04✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS RomaDraw✕
Kódfejtő
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FootballNFL & NCAAFTennisBasketballBaseball
Hit rate
53.8%
expected 50.2%
Edge
+3.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
78
42-36
ROI
+5.9%
on 66 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.17 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L4
Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Football35-29 · 64 graded
+5.155%
NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−1.050%
Tennis2-2 · 4 graded
−0.350%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+4.967%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−46.20%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Totals14-12 · 26 graded
−0.554%
Parlays11-13 · 24 graded
+4.046%
Match result12-6 · 18 graded
+13.867%
Handicap3-1 · 4 graded
+18.175%
Double chance1-2 · 3 graded
−21.533%
Both teams to score1-2 · 3 graded
−18.633%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Favourite8-3 · 11 graded
+2.973%
Even22-18 · 40 graded
+3.755%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
+2.833%
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
< 1.504-1 · 5 graded
+1.8%80%
1.50…1.8914-10 · 24 graded
+2.2%58%
1.90…2.297-7 · 14 graded
+3.7%50%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-0%
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks- September 2026+7.7 pp6-4 · 60%ROI +15.2%
- October 2026+2.4 pp32-29 · 52%ROI +2.9%
- November 2026+8.8 pp4-3 · 57%ROI +24.3%
By league
- UEFA Nations League8-373%+17.0
- Champions League6-275%+26.3
- Serie A · Italy4-357%+6.7
- Premier League · England5-271%+23.3
- NFL3-350%−1.0
- Europa League2-250%−4.5
- LaLiga · Spain1-233%−16.6
- Bundesliga · Germany0-30%−50.9
- Süper Lig · Turkiye1-150%−4.9
- Championship · England1-150%+12.9
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Picks
AS RomaAS Romaodds 1.59Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Villarreal
0:6
Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-Germain to win@1.59
odds 2.26Void
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
void
Moise Kouame
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@2.26∅
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
void
Moise Kouame
Under 22.5 games@2.26∅
odds 1.53Lost
Serie A·
Atalanta
0:3
ParmaAtalanta to win@1.53
odds 1.60Lost
Premier League·
Newcastle United
0:1
EvertonBoth teams to score: yes@1.60
odds 1.94Won
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Lorenzo Musetti
2:0
Hubert Hurkacz
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.94
odds 1.89Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
19:24
New England PatriotsUnder 43.5@1.89
odds 2.04Won
Serie A·
Juventus
2:0
NapoliUnder 3.5@2.04
odds 1.60Lost
Spain · Liga ACB·
Basquet Coruna
93:89
Iberostar TenerifeUnder 179.5@1.60
odds 2.14Lost
Bundesliga·
Bayern Munich
2:2
Borussia DortmundBayern Munich to win@2.14✕
Bundesliga·
Bayern Munich
2:2
Borussia DortmundOver 3.5@2.14✓
odds 1.84Won
Premier League·
Chelsea
2:0
Manchester UnitedChelsea to win@1.84
odds 1.60Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Barcelona
98:94
ValenciaBarcelona to win@1.60
odds 1.65Lost
Bundesliga·
Elversberg
4:1
Mainz 05Mainz 05 or draw@1.65✕
Bundesliga·
Elversberg
4:1
Mainz 05Over 1.5@1.65✓
odds 1.64Lost
LaLiga·
Villarreal
0:1
EspanyolVillarreal to win@1.64✕
LaLiga·
Villarreal
0:1
EspanyolOver 1.5@1.64✕
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
95:76
FenerbahçeUnder 175.5
odds 1.67Won
Serie A·
Frosinone
5:1
LecceFrosinone to win@1.67
odds 1.64Lost
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 4·
Liverpool
1:1
Chelseapenalties
Both teams to score: yes@1.64✓
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 4·
Liverpool
1:1
Chelseapenalties
Over 2.5@1.64✕
odds 2.06Lost
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 4·
Sunderland
3:2
BrentfordBrentford to win@2.06
odds 1.75Won
Greece · Greece Cup: Group Stage·
Marko
0:2
OlympiacosOlympiacos to win@1.75
odds 2.70Lost
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
2:1
Zizou Bergs
Hubert Hurkacz to win@2.70✓
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
2:1
Zizou Bergs
Under 25.5 games@2.70✕
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas CowboysUnder 44.5@1.83
odds 2.06Won
LaLiga·
Sevilla
2:0
OsasunaSevilla to win@2.06✓
LaLiga·
Sevilla
2:0
OsasunaUnder 4.5@2.06✓
odds 1.99Won
Süper Lig·
Rizespor
3:4
TrabzonsporTrabzonspor to win@1.99
odds 1.80Lost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real MadridBarcelona to win@1.80✕
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real MadridOver 2.5@1.80✓
odds 1.56Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Lorenzo Musetti
2:0
Taylor Fritz
Lorenzo Musetti +1.5 sets@1.56
odds 1.77Won
Premier League·
Manchester United
0:3
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth or draw@1.77
odds 1.64Lost
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
1:0
Eintracht FrankfurtBoth teams to score: yes@1.64✕
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
1:0
Eintracht FrankfurtOver 2.5@1.64✕
odds 2.10Won
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:0
EvertonArsenal to win@2.10✓
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:0
EvertonUnder 3.5@2.10✓
odds 1.81Won
Championship·
Bolton Wanderers
1:5
MiddlesbroughBoth teams to score: yes@1.81✓
Championship·
Bolton Wanderers
1:5
MiddlesbroughOver 2.5@1.81✓
odds 1.86Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Beşiktaş
2:2
Crystal PalaceOver 3@1.86