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Homer Picks

@HomerTipster461 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 9 h before start

Profitable Sports Analyst & Betting Picks 🎾🥊 ⚽️ | Free Telegram: https://t.co/pG4TrjRE46

TennisFootball
CompareRSS
Tipster index41.5#549 on the leaderboarddown 55 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
44.6%
expected 50.6%
Edge
−6.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
74
33-41
ROI
−14.3%
on 74 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.46 u
Average odds
1.98
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W6, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2031 Jul20 Aug8 Sept28 Sept18 Oct

By sport

Tennis32-41 · 73 graded
−6.6
44%
Football1-0 · 1 graded
+40.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result32-41 · 73 graded
−6.6
44%
Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+40.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−11.5
50%
Even29-33 · 62 graded
−6.5
47%
Underdog3-7 · 10 graded
−1.5
30%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8923-23 · 46 graded
−15.2%
50%
1.90…2.296-9 · 15 graded
−20.7%
40%
2.30…3.493-7 · 10 graded
−18.8%
30%
3.50+1-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −1.8 pp
    28-29 · 49%
    ROI −8.3%
  • September 2026
    −16.4 pp
    5-10 · 33%
    ROI −25.9%
  • October 2026
    −45.5 pp
    0-2 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:07 · 4 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open: Qualification·
Valentin Royer
1:2
Clement Tabur
Valentin Royer to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:39 · 31 min before start
odds 3.00Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Daniil Medvedev
2:0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@3.00
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 11:08 · 4 h before start
odds 1.72Lost
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 11:08 · 2 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
ATP Challenger · Biella, Italy·
Jay Clarke
2:1
Felix Gill
Felix Gill to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 11:08 · 2 h before start
odds 1.61Won
ATP Challenger · Szczecin, Poland·
Marco Cecchinato
0:2
Marco Trungelliti
Marco Trungelliti to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:41 · 6 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:1
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 07:34 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90Won
ATP Challenger · Istanbul 3·
Maks Kasnikowski
0:2
Jay Dylan Friend
Jay Dylan Friend to win@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.90 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 09:58 · 17 h before start
odds 4.33Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Ben Shelton
3:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Ben Shelton to win@4.33
Open on Xexpected 22% from odds+3.33 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 09:58 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
ATP Challenger · Cassis, France·
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
2:0
Felix Balshaw
Felix Balshaw to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 09:58 · 9 h before start
odds 1.66Lost
ATP Challenger · Seville, Spain·
Dusan Lajovic
2:0
Martin Landaluce
Martin Landaluce to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 09:58 · 6 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
ATP Challenger · Seville, Spain·
Felix Gill
0:2
Sebastian Ofner
Felix Gill to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 07:11 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Blockx
3:1
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 07:11 · 19 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Jakub Mensik
2:3
Learner Tien
Jakub Mensik to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 11:08 · 11 h before start
odds 1.90Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Tomas Etcheverry
3:0
Mariano Navone
Mariano Navone to win@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 11:08 · 6 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Bublik
2:3
Tommy Paul
Alexander Bublik to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 10:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.61Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexei Popyrin
1:3
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro Tabilo to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 10:45 · 4 h before start
odds 1.66Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Luciano Darderi
3:1
Dalibor Svrcina
Luciano Darderi to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.66 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 09:05 · 6 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Valentin Vacherot
3:0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Aleksandar Kovacevic to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 09:05 · 8 h before start
odds 1.62Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Matteo Arnaldi
1:3
James Duckworth
Matteo Arnaldi to win@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 09:05 · 11 h before start
odds 1.72Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Yannick Hanfmann
1:3
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro Tabilo to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 30 Aug, 02:10 · 15 h before start
odds 1.53Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Jaume Munar
3:2
Terence Atmane
Terence Atmane to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Aug, 02:10 · 17 h before start
odds 1.72Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Toby Samuel
3:0
Tomas Machac
Toby Samuel to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 14:39 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·
Arthur Fery
0:2
Ignacio Buse
Arthur Fery to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 09:53 · 11 h before start
odds 1.72Lost
ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·
Ignacio Buse
2:1
Benjamin Bonzi
Benjamin Bonzi to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 09:53 · 13 h before start
odds 1.72Void
ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·
James Duckworth
void
Arthur Fery
Arthur Fery to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds
Singleposted 28 Aug, 09:53 · 5 h before start
odds 1.66Won
US Open · Men's Qualification·
Lloyd Harris
2:0
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Lloyd Harris to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.66 u
Singleposted 27 Aug, 18:57 · 2 min before start
odds 1.61Won
LaLiga·
Barcelona
2:0
Athletic Club
Barcelona −1@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 27 Aug, 08:37 · 13 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1:2
Ignacio Buse
Juan Manuel Cerundolo to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Aug, 08:37 · 16 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·
Arthur Fery
2:1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Aleksandar Kovacevic to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 09:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.72Won
US Open · Men's Qualification·
Joel Schwaerzler
2:1
Gustavo Heide
Joel Schwaerzler to win@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u