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HennyProps

@Hennyprops403 followersfirst pick 10 Septusually posts 5 h before start

NBA | NFL | CFB Props Daily free plays + public results NFL 33-20 | CFB 25-9 Free Discord ↓

NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index58.2#123 on the leaderboardup 49 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
57.8%
expected 51.9%
Edge
+5.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 48.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
73
41-30-2
ROI
+1.1%
on 60 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.22 u
Average odds
1.85
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W8, worst L11

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202469 Sept21 Sept2 Oct14 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF22-19-2 · 43 graded
+1.9
54%
Baseball16-8 · 24 graded
+15.3
67%
Hockey3-3 · 6 graded
−5.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals14-17-1 · 32 graded
−5.7
45%
Match result14-8 · 22 graded
+10.3
64%
Handicap11-5-1 · 17 graded
+16.9
69%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+49.1
100%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+43.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+30.2
100%
Even38-30-2 · 70 graded
+4.5
56%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8916-22-1 · 39 graded
−24.2%
42%
1.90…2.2915-5 · 20 graded
+47.6%
75%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +20.6 pp
    21-8-1 · 72%
    ROI +33.6%
  • October 2026
    −4.4 pp
    20-22-1 · 48%
    ROI −12.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:52 · 27 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Under 42.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 20:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.60Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 10✓
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 7✓
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.60 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:47 · 32 min before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 39.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers −3@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:49 · 7 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:49 · 7 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Under 50.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 15:40 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 15:40 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 16:50 · 7 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Under 7@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 16:50 · 6 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Under 42.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Under 42.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:12 · 5 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:10 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals −3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:10 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 42.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:32 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05Won
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:32 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
26:27
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:28 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:28 · 6 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 8.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:28 · 10 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
1:2
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:56 · 7 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:56 · 7 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 17.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
24:18
Tennessee Titans
Over 42@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u