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Erba

@ErbaLocks30 followersfirst pick 15 Octusually posts 39 min before start

Sports Better :)

NFL & NCAAFBasketballHockeyBaseball
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Tipster index62.1#79 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
75.0%
expected 53.8%
Edge
+21.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 51.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
12
9-3
ROI
+50.0%
on 11 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.82
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W7, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1012314 Oct19 Oct23 Oct28 Oct1 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-2 · 5 graded
+4.3
60%
Basketball3-0 · 3 graded
+49.5
100%
Hockey3-0 · 3 graded
+47.0
100%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−57.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result7-1 · 8 graded
+34.8
88%
Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+8.8
67%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−51.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−68.6
0%
Even9-1 · 10 graded
+37.4
90%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.896-1 · 7 graded
+51.6%
86%
1.90…2.293-0 · 3 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +27.7 pp
    9-2 · 82%
    ROI +65.0%
  • November 2026
    −51.3 pp
    0-1 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 2posted 1 Nov, 17:59 · 1 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
33:38
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Jets to win✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
36:10
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills −3✓
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 22:31 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
95:79
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 23:37 · 38 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
27:19
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +4
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 21:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
3:4
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:57 · 3 min before start
odds 1.73Won
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:24 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
New Mexico State Aggies
0:24
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks −2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 02:04 · 25 min before start
odds 1.71Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
0:2
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:33 · 41 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 23:56 · 1 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
19:42
UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA Roadrunners to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:47 · 13 min before start
odds 2.05Won
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:58 · 3 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
4:5
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u