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EROSS.GG

@EROSSPICKS39 followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 2 h before start

Modelo avanzado para deportes • Value Bets 📊 Cuota promedio: 1.95 ⬆️ #Sabermetrics +18

BaseballHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index48.2#512 on the leaderboarddown 44 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
42.5%
expected 43.7%
Edge
−1.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
80
34-46
ROI
−11.1%
on 53 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.86 u
Average odds
1.92
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-204 Sept19 Sept3 Oct17 Oct31 Oct

By sport

Baseball32-41 · 73 graded
−0.2
44%
Hockey2-5 · 7 graded
−12.2
29%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result12-11 · 23 graded
+1.1
52%
Totals11-11 · 22 graded
−2.1
50%
Parlays5-16 · 21 graded
+1.8
24%
Handicap5-8 · 13 graded
−12.0
38%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+41.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-3 · 10 graded
+6.3
70%
Even21-26 · 47 graded
−4.8
45%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.6
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.50…1.8911-10 · 21 graded
−8.9%
52%
1.90…2.2912-14 · 26 graded
−7.9%
46%
2.30…3.491-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −1.3 pp
    26-36 · 42%
    ROI −11.8%
  • October 2026
    −0.9 pp
    8-10 · 44%
    ROI −9.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 31 Oct, 17:09 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Montreal Canadiens to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 17:09 · 3 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
2:3
Buffalo Sabres
Los Angeles Kings to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 20:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
2:5
New Jersey Devils
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:31 · 29 min before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 26 Oct, 21:07 · 2 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
3:6
Los Angeles Kings
New York Rangers to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
3:4
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames to win✓
Open on Xexpected 15% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:18 · 3 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
2:1
Winnipeg Jets
St. Louis Blues to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:29 · 30 min before start
odds 1.99Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5@1.99
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:34 · 25 min before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:02 · 28 min before start
odds 2.04Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win@2.04
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:24 · 36 min before start
odds 2.20Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:35 · 1 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 8 Oct, 22:50 · 9 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:1
Utah Mammoth
Boston Bruins to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox to win✕
Open on Xexpected 21% by model
Parlay · 2posted 7 Oct, 23:11 · 49 min before start
odds 2.26Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win✕
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 7 Oct, 19:52 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:5
Edmonton Oilers
Anaheim Ducks to win✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:22 · 38 min before start
odds 1.97Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Over 6.5@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:36 · 24 min before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox +1.5
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:01 · 2 h before start
odds 1.73DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.73 u
Parlay · 2posted 3 Oct, 17:46 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
4:3
Chicago Blackhawks
Buffalo Sabres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 19:37 · 1 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Houston Astros
3:6
Chicago White Sox
Under 8
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 17:41 · 1 h before start
odds 2.01DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
2:4
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.01 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 22:39 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB·
San Diego Padres
10:7
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:56 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
5:11
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
2:6
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Parlay · 4posted 25 Sept, 16:37 · 6 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
8:7
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8✕
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
8:4
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers to win✓
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
0:2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 7.5✕
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
5:7
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels to win✓
Open on Xexpected 8% by model
Parlay · 2posted 24 Sept, 16:10 · 9 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:6
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels +1.5✓
MLB·
Athletics
5:7
Houston Astros
Under 10.5✕
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:09 · 7 h before start
Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
6:7
Cincinnati Reds
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:09 · 10 h before start
Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:6
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:09 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:09 · 7 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
0:1
Cleveland Guardians
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u