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Daijon

@DaijonBets2.5K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 7 h before start

📊 Daily Sports Betting Research ⚾️ MLB | 🏈 NFL | 🏀 NBA | 🎾 Tennis

TennisBaseballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index56.4#142 on the leaderboarddown 2 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
56.6%
expected 51.6%
Edge
+5.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
53
30-23
ROI
+3.6%
on 50 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.66 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W8, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20231 Jul19 Aug7 Sept26 Sept15 Oct

By sport

Tennis23-19 · 42 graded
+2.5
55%
Baseball5-2 · 7 graded
+23.4
71%
NFL & NCAAF2-2 · 4 graded
−0.6
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result17-6 · 23 graded
+23.2
74%
Handicap7-8 · 15 graded
−6.3
47%
Totals6-9 · 15 graded
−11.6
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+36.5
100%
Even26-21 · 47 graded
+2.7
55%
Underdog2-2 · 4 graded
+16.6
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8921-13 · 34 graded
+8.0%
62%
1.90…2.295-7 · 12 graded
−16.9%
42%
2.30…3.492-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +6.8 pp
    17-12 · 59%
    ROI +1.0%
  • September 2026
    −2.5 pp
    10-10 · 50%
    ROI −7.4%
  • October 2026
    +29.3 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:40 · 6 h before start
odds 2.56Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.56
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.56 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 17:58 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 7
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:56 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.73 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 05:49 · 18 h before start
odds 1.72DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:2
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.72 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 18:05 · 8 h before start
odds 1.82Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:55 · 37 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
30:27
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:35 · 22 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
6:20
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 04:55 · 20 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +5.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 15:26 · 6 h before start
odds 2.50Void
US Open · Men's Singles·
Karen Khachanov
void
Alexander Blockx
Alexander Blockx to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds
Singleposted 9 Sept, 07:05 · 17 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Under 44.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 14:47 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Jessica Pegula
2:1
Emma Navarro
Jessica Pegula −1.5 sets@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 15:03 · 5 h before start
odds 1.75Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Naomi Osaka
0:2
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.75 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 14:23 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Iga Swiatek
0:2
Qinwen Zheng
Iga Swiatek −4.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:14 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Marta Kostyuk
1:2
Linda Noskova
Marta Kostyuk to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:14 · 4 h before start
odds 2.55Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Daniil Medvedev
0:3
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.55 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Blockx
3:1
Flavio Cobolli
Over 39.5 games@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 14:52 · 12 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Alejandro Tabilo
Over 3.5 sets@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 14:22 · 1 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Taylor Fritz
2:3
Francisco Cerundolo
Taylor Fritz −6.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 14:46 · 2 h before start
odds 1.82Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Bublik
2:3
Tommy Paul
Over 38.5 games@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 14:46 · 4 h before start
odds 1.64Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Yibing Wu
0:3
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz −6.5@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.64 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 14:36 · 33 min before start
odds 1.73Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Iga Swiatek
2:0
Nadia Podoroska
Under 16.5 games@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 14:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Ben Shelton
3:1
Hubert Hurkacz
Over 40.5 games@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 14:37 · 33 min before start
odds 1.71Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Brandon Nakashima
0:3
Alex Michelsen
Alex Michelsen +4.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 14:37 · 4 h before start
odds 1.79Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Denis Shapovalov
3:0
Luca Van Assche
Luca Van Assche +3.5@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 14:48 · 4 h before start
odds 1.71Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Maria Sakkari
2:1
Robin Montgomery
Maria Sakkari to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 14:51 · 3 h before start
odds 1.82Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Roman Safiullin
0:3
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz −5.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 14:51 · 18 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3:1
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils −5.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 19:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
ATP 1000 · Cincinnati·
Arthur Fils
2:1
Frances Tiafoe
Over 22.5 games@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.90Lost
WTA 1000 · Cincinnati·
Coco Gauff
2:0
Jessica Pegula
Over 21.5 games@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80Won
WTA 1000 · Cincinnati·
Coco Gauff
2:0
Marta Kostyuk
Coco Gauff to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u