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CATALINA LUCIA

@CATALINA_LUCIA118 followersfirst pick 14 Septusually posts 4 h before start

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Tipster index62.2#67 on the leaderboarddown 20 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win@1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −6.5
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win@2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
-:-
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings to win@1.34
Hit rate
67.9%
expected 58.5%
Edge
+9.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 57.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
57
38-18-1 · 11 pending
ROI
+11.8%
on 42 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
1.66
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W13, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2024613 Sept23 Sept2 Oct11 Oct21 Oct

By sport

Football21-7 · 28 graded
+10.3
75%
NFL & NCAAF8-5-1 · 14 graded
+13.6
62%
Hockey8-3 · 11 graded
+9.4
73%
Baseball1-2 · 3 graded
−14.2
33%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−1.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result28-12-1 · 41 graded
+9.8
70%
Handicap10-1 · 11 graded
+14.8
91%
Parlays0-5 · 5 graded
−6.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite25-4-1 · 30 graded
+12.1
86%
Even12-8 · 20 graded
+9.0
60%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.0
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5015-2 · 17 graded
+16.5%
88%
1.50…1.898-5-1 · 14 graded
+1.2%
62%
1.90…2.295-4 · 9 graded
+15.9%
56%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −14.2 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • October 2026
    +10.7 pp
    37-16-1 · 70%
    ROI +14.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 22 min before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.34Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
-:-
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings to win@1.34
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.61Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
-:-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.79Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
-:-
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.43Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
-:-
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.47Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
-:-
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.58Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
-:-
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds
Parlay · 10posted 20 Oct, 09:00 · 8 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
FIU Golden Panthers to win✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Sabah FK
1:2
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
5:1
AEK Athens
Manchester City to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
3:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:3
Minnesota Wild
Edmonton Oilers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Boston Bruins
Dallas Stars to win✓
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
AZ Alkmaar
2:1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
AZ Alkmaar to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Lech Poznan
0:4
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Lyon
3:2
Crystal Palace
Lyon +1.5
Open on Xexpected 86% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
NK Celje
0:3
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia +1.5
Open on Xexpected 80% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
FC Salzburg
0:4
AC Milan
AC Milan to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.46DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Europa League · League Stage·
Sparta Prague
1:1
Lillestroem
Sparta Prague to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Torreense
1:2
Sunderland
Sunderland to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Union St.Gilloise
1:1
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad +1.5
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 2 h before start
odds 1.16DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
AFC Bournemouth
3:0
Sturm Graz
AFC Bournemouth to win
Open on Xexpected 82% from the closing line+0.16 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 2 h before start
odds 1.19DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Benfica
4:1
Celtic
Benfica to win
Open on Xexpected 80% from the closing line+0.19 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 2 h before start
odds 2.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Celta Vigo
1:2
Juventus
Juventus to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line+1.25 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 2 h before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Dinamo Zagreb
1:0
Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb +1.5
Open on Xexpected 80% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Tampa Bay Lightning
4:3
Seattle Kraken
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
7:1
New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:1
New York Islanders
penalties
New York Islanders +1.5
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
4:5
Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
Open on Xexpected 95% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 6 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Florida Panthers
3:2
Vancouver Canucks
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.33 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 7 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
2:1
Philadelphia Flyers
Detroit Red Wings to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u