BFP

@BlueFirePicks3.7K followersfirst pick 26 Sept

Data-driven sports handicapper from Long Island, NY 📊 Fantasy football fanatic | #NYR | Husband & dad to two girls | Good bourbon, better picks 🥃🔥

HockeyNFL & NCAAF

CompareRSS

Tipster index50.8needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 46.4%

Edge

+3.6 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-2

ROI

on 4 picks with odds

Average odds

2.11

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W1, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Hockey1-2 · 3 graded

−11.7

33%

NFL & NCAAF1-0 · 1 graded

+49.3

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals2-1 · 3 graded

+16.1

67%

Match result0-1 · 1 graded

−34.0

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even2-1 · 3 graded

+16.1

67%

Underdog0-1 · 1 graded

−34.0

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded

50%

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded

100%

2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).