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AMO Picks

@AMOPicksDE9 followersfirst pick 2 Octusually posts 6 h before start

Sport Picks & Accas 🇩🇪 18+ | https://t.co/Hed1hWKQ71

HockeyNFL & NCAAFTennisBaseball
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Tipster index69.6#10 on the leaderboardup 5 this weekdeveloping sample

Deleted picks

After posting, the author deleted 1 pick from X: 1 lost, 0 won.

Deleted picks stay in the stats: the index and hit rate include them. How we check

Hit rate
84.6%
expected 52.3%
Edge
+32.4 pp
hit rate at least 62.6% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
13
11-2
ROI
+72.1%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W9, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0241 Oct5 Oct8 Oct12 Oct16 Oct

By sport

Hockey4-0 · 4 graded
+46.7
100%
Tennis2-1 · 3 graded
+15.1
67%
Baseball3-0 · 3 graded
+50.7
100%
NFL & NCAAF2-1 · 3 graded
+12.1
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result7-2 · 9 graded
+26.2
78%
Totals3-0 · 3 graded
+44.2
100%
Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+51.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+35.5
100%
Even10-2 · 12 graded
+32.1
83%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.296-0 · 6 graded
+100.3%
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +32.4 pp
    11-2 · 85%
    ROI +72.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:56 · 3 h before start
Deletedodds 1.70Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 18:29 · 5 h before start
odds 1.78Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 12:08 · 1 h before start
odds 2.02Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Hubert Hurkacz
1:2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 11:58 · 11 h before start
odds 1.98Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
2:3
Seattle Kraken
penalties
Seattle Kraken to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 11:13 · 10 h before start
odds 2.12Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.12
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.12 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 08:11 · 9 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 12:05 · 6 h before start
Won
Champions League · Champions League: Regular Season·
Salzburg
3:4
Eisbaeren Berlin
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 11:24 · 11 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 11:20 · 11 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 08:02 · 9 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:05 · 3 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Andrey Rublev
2:1
Roman Safiullin
Roman Safiullin to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 19:43 · 4 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
3:4
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 08:47 · 3 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · China Open·
Hubert Hurkacz
2:1
Arthur Gea
Hubert Hurkacz to win
Open on Xexpected 48% by model