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That is slightly below the 65.7% expected from the odds and team strength, so as a group they have not beaten the baseline in this competition.","Individual records vary a lot. TheBeardWiz won 73% of 30 picks, well above the 59% expected. Live2Sport_com won 35% of 34, against 51% expected. AdamsSmith7w won all 4 picks, but 4 is far too small a sample to read anything into."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["The bookmaker has Bournemouth as clear favourites. With its margin of about 5% removed, the price of 1.392 gives them a 68% chance to win. A draw comes out at about 19% and a Sparta Prague win at about 13%.","The prices have moved further towards Bournemouth. Their price opened at 1.588 and is now 1.392. Sparta Prague drifted from 5.0 to 7.5.","A price of 1.392 needs Bournemouth to win about 72% of the time just to break even. That is more than the 68% chance the price suggests once the margin is removed.","The goals line has gone up too, from 2.5 to 3.5. The bookmaker gives about a 40% chance of 4 or more goals."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Bournemouth come in with 5 straight wins and no goals conceded: 2-0 v Leeds United, 3-0 v Aston Villa in the EFL Cup, 3-0 away at Manchester United, 3-0 v AC Milan in the Europa League and 2-0 v Sunderland.","Sparta Prague have won 1 of their last 5: 0-0 at Bohemians, 0-2 at home to Banik Ostrava in the Cup, 5-1 v Slovacko, 0-1 at Olympiacos in the Europa League and 0-0 at Banik Ostrava. Across those 5 games they scored 5 and conceded 4."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["In the Europa League, the side most tipsters picked has won 66.7% of 67 matches we graded. That is a bit above the 63.8% expected. Across all competitions the figure is 64.3% of 6,770 matches, against 61.5% expected.","Winning often is not the same as making money. The majority usually picks the favourite, and favourites pay short prices. Across the 109,166 tipster picks we could grade with odds, the return was minus 3.4%, which is a loss."]}],"names":[{"text":"Sparta Prague","entity":"Sparta Prague"},{"text":"Bournemouth","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"GeniusBrooks","entity":"GeniusBrooks"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Leeds United","entity":"Leeds United"},{"text":"Aston Villa","entity":"Aston Villa"},{"text":"EFL Cup","entity":"EFL Cup"},{"text":"Manchester United","entity":"Manchester United"},{"text":"AC Milan","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Sunderland","entity":"Sunderland"},{"text":"Bohemians","entity":"Bohemians 1905"},{"text":"Banik Ostrava","entity":"Banik Ostrava"},{"text":"Cup","entity":"Cup"},{"text":"Slovacko","entity":"Slovacko"},{"text":"Olympiacos","entity":"Olympiacos"}]},"ru":{"home":"Спарта Прага","away":"Борнмут","takeaway":"16 из 17 капперов выбрали победу Борнмута, на победу Спарты не поставил никто. Букмекер тоже считает Борнмут явным фаворитом, шансы около 68%. Но никого из этих капперов нет в топ-100 нашего рейтинга, а в Лиге Европы их прогнозы в сумме заходят примерно на уровне ожидаемого. Своего прогноза мы не даём.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["Капперы почти единодушны: из 17 капперов, оставивших прогнозы на этот матч, 16 выбрали победу Борнмута. На победу Спарты не поставил никто, и никто не поставил на обе стороны сразу.","Ещё один каппер, GeniusBrooks, исход не выбирал. У этого каппера только прогноз, что Борнмут забьёт хотя бы 1 гол.","Всего набралось 39 прогнозов, потому что некоторые капперы дали сразу несколько ставок на разные рынки. Больше всех их выложили Victoryedge12 и Giftedtipster. Вариант «обе забьют» выбрали 4 каппера, против него не высказался никто."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["Сильных имён в этом списке нет. Лучший из них, carlaBets, стоит на 123-м месте из 803 капперов нашего рейтинга, так что в топ-100 не попал никто. Индекс выше 55 только у 4 капперов.","У 12 из 16 сторонников Борнмута уже есть рассчитанные прогнозы в Лиге Европы. Всего это 552 прогноза, из них зашло 64,7%. С учётом коэффициентов и силы команд ожидалось 65,7%, то есть в этом турнире они в сумме не обыгрывают ожидания.","Выделяется TheBeardWiz: в Лиге Европы зашло 73% из 30 прогнозов, а ожидалось 59%. У Live2Sport_com обратная картина: зашло 35% из 34, а ожидалось 51%. У AdamsSmith7w зашли все 4 прогноза, но выборка слишком мала, чтобы делать выводы."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["Букмекер тоже видит явного фаворита в Борнмуте. Коэффициент на его победу упал с 1,588 на открытии до 1,392. Если убрать маржу букмекера, это примерно 68% шансов.","Спарта, наоборот, подорожала: с 5,0 до 7,5, это около 13% шансов. На ничью сейчас дают 5,0, примерно 19%. Маржа букмекера на этот рынок около 5,2%.","Чтобы ставка на Борнмут по 1,392 выходила в ноль, она должна заходить в 71,8% случаев. Линия тотала тоже сдвинулась: на открытии она стояла на 2,5 гола, сейчас на 3,5. Шанс, что голов будет больше 3,5, букмекер оценивает примерно в 40%."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Спарта выиграла только 1 из последних 5 матчей: 5:1 дома со Словацко. Остальные результаты: 0:0 в гостях у Богемианс, 0:2 дома от Баника Острава в кубке, 0:1 в гостях у Олимпиакоса в Лиге Европы и 0:0 в гостях у Баника Острава.","У Борнмута 5 побед подряд и ни одного пропущенного гола. Результаты: 2:0 с Лидсом, 3:0 с Астон Виллой в Кубке лиги, 3:0 в гостях у Манчестер Юнайтед, 3:0 с Миланом в Лиге Европы и 2:0 с Сандерлендом."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["В Лиге Европы мы рассчитали 67 матчей, где у капперов было большинство за одну команду. Выбор большинства заходил в 66,7% случаев. Ожидалось 63,8%, так что разница небольшая. По всем турнирам похоже: выбор большинства зашёл в 64,3% из 6770 матчей, а ожидалось 61,5%.","Но угадывать часто и зарабатывать — не одно и то же. Большинство обычно выбирает фаворита с низким коэффициентом, а там даже частые попадания мало что приносят. По всем прогнозам, где мы смогли посчитать доходность, а это 109166 ставок, итог −3,4%."]}],"names":[{"text":"Борнмута","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Борнмут","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Борнмуте","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Спарты","entity":"Sparta Prague"},{"text":"Спарта","entity":"Sparta Prague"},{"text":"Спарта Прага","entity":"Sparta Prague"},{"text":"Лиге Европы","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"Словацко","entity":"Slovacko"},{"text":"Богемианс","entity":"Bohemians 1905"},{"text":"Баника Острава","entity":"Banik Ostrava"},{"text":"Олимпиакоса","entity":"Olympiacos"},{"text":"Лидсом","entity":"Leeds United"},{"text":"Астон Виллой","entity":"Aston Villa"},{"text":"Кубке лиги","entity":"EFL Cup"},{"text":"Манчестер Юнайтед","entity":"Manchester United"},{"text":"Миланом","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Сандерлендом","entity":"Sunderland"},{"text":"GeniusBrooks","entity":"GeniusBrooks"},{"text":"Victoryedge12","entity":"Victoryedge12"},{"text":"Giftedtipster","entity":"Giftedtipster"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"}]},"es":{"home":"Sparta de Praga","away":"Bournemouth","takeaway":"16 de los 17 tipsters que siguen este partido eligieron la victoria del Bournemouth, y ninguno la del Sparta de Praga. La casa de apuestas también ve favorito al Bournemouth, con cerca de un 68 % sin su margen. Aun así, ninguno de estos tipsters está en el top 100 de nuestra clasificación. Nosotros no damos ningún pronóstico propio.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["El apoyo es casi total para el Bournemouth: 16 de los 17 tipsters eligieron su victoria. Ninguno eligió al Sparta de Praga y ninguno apostó por los dos lados.","El tipster que queda, GeniusBrooks, no eligió ganador. Este tipster solo apostó a que el Bournemouth marque al menos un gol.","Además, 4 tipsters esperan goles de los dos equipos: AdamsSmith7w, Victoryedge12, dbunk_picks y Giftedtipster. Nadie eligió lo contrario."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["Ese apoyo pesa menos de lo que parece. El mejor clasificado es carlaBets, en el puesto 123 de 803, así que ninguno entra en nuestro top 100. Solo 4 tienen un índice de 55 o más: carlaBets, trophysportpick, AdamsSmith7w y TheBeardWiz.","En la Europa League, 12 de los 16 que van con el Bournemouth tienen picks evaluados. Juntos ganaron el 64,7 % de 552 picks. Es un poco menos del 65,7 % esperado según las cuotas y la fuerza de los equipos.","Hay casos que destacan. TheBeardWiz ganó el 73 % de 30 picks en esta competición, frente a un 59 % esperado. Live2Sport_com, en cambio, ganó solo el 35 % de 34, cuando se esperaba un 51 %. Los 4 de 4 de AdamsSmith7w son una muestra demasiado pequeña para sacar conclusiones."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["En DraftKings, el Bournemouth paga 1,392. Quitado el margen de la casa, que ronda el 5 %, eso equivale a cerca de un 68 % de probabilidad de victoria. Para no perder dinero a esa cuota habría que acertar más del 72 % de las veces.","El precio se ha movido hacia el Bournemouth: abrió en 1,588. El Sparta de Praga pasó de 5,0 a 7,5, lo que deja su opción en torno a un 13 %. El empate está en 5,0, cerca de un 19 %.","La línea de goles también subió, de 2,5 a 3,5. La casa da alrededor de un 40 % a que haya más de 3,5 goles."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["El Bournemouth llega con 5 victorias seguidas, todas sin encajar: 2-0 al Leeds United, 3-0 al Aston Villa en la EFL Cup, 3-0 en el campo del Manchester United, 3-0 al AC Milan en la Europa League y 2-0 al Sunderland. En total, 13 goles a favor y ninguno en contra.","El Sparta de Praga suma 1 victoria, 2 empates y 2 derrotas: 0-0 en el campo del Bohemians, 0-2 en casa ante el Banik Ostrava en la copa, 5-1 al Slovacko, 0-1 ante el Olympiacos en la Europa League y 0-0 ante el Banik Ostrava. Marcó 5 goles y encajó 4."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["En la Europa League, la opción de la mayoría ganó el 66,7 % de 67 partidos. Es algo más del 63,8 % esperado según las cuotas y la fuerza de los equipos. En todas las competiciones, la mayoría acertó el 64,3 % de 6.770 partidos, frente a un 61,5 % esperado.","Acertar a menudo no significa ganar dinero. Los favoritos pagan poco, y sumando 109.166 picks con cuota, el resultado fue una pérdida del 3,4 %. Nuestras pruebas no encontraron beneficio demostrado en seguir a los tipsters."]}],"names":[{"text":"Sparta de Praga","entity":"Sparta Prague"},{"text":"Bournemouth","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"GeniusBrooks","entity":"GeniusBrooks"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Victoryedge12","entity":"Victoryedge12"},{"text":"dbunk_picks","entity":"dbunk_picks"},{"text":"Giftedtipster","entity":"Giftedtipster"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"trophysportpick","entity":"trophysportpick"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"DraftKings","entity":"DraftKings"},{"text":"Leeds United","entity":"Leeds United"},{"text":"Aston Villa","entity":"Aston Villa"},{"text":"EFL Cup","entity":"EFL Cup"},{"text":"Manchester United","entity":"Manchester United"},{"text":"AC Milan","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Sunderland","entity":"Sunderland"},{"text":"Bohemians","entity":"Bohemians 1905"},{"text":"Banik Ostrava","entity":"Banik Ostrava"},{"text":"copa","entity":"Cup"},{"text":"Slovacko","entity":"Slovacko"},{"text":"Olympiacos","entity":"Olympiacos"}]}},"written_at":"2026-11-05T15:50:08Z"}