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The bookmaker also makes Real Sociedad clear favourites, at about 61% once the margin is removed. The tipsters behind that pick have done only about as well as expected in the Europa League, and none of them is in our top 100. We give no tip of our own on this match.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["We tracked 33 picks from 17 tipsters on this match. 13 of them picked Real Sociedad to win. Not one picked Lyon, and nobody picked both sides.","The other 4 tipsters made no straight winner pick. TheBeardWiz and Aiprotips1 took Real Sociedad on the double chance, which also wins on a draw. freetips picked both teams to score, and sharpbetsclub picked more than 2.5 goals. In total, 5 tipsters expect both teams to score."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["This is not an elite crowd. We rank 803 tipsters, and none of the 17 here is in our top 100. The best placed is carlaBets at 123rd, and 5 of the 17 have an index above 55.","The 13 Real Sociedad backers include 8 with graded picks in the Europa League. Together they won 64% of 420 picks. That is almost exactly the 65% expected from the odds and team strength, so they have not beaten the market here.","A few individual records stand out. TheBeardWiz won 73% of 30 Europa League picks, against 59% expected, but backed only the double chance here. Live2Sport_com won 35% of 34, well below the 51% expected. AdamsSmith7w won all 4 graded picks, which is far too small a sample to read anything into."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["At DraftKings, Real Sociedad have shortened from 1.952 at opening to 1.556 now. With the bookmaker's margin of about 5% removed, that price gives them roughly a 61% chance. A bet at 1.556 needs to win about 64% of the time just to break even.","The draw has drifted from 3.65 to 4.6, or about 21% without the margin. Lyon have drifted from 3.5 to 5.25, which works out to about 18%.","The goals line has moved up too. It opened at 2.5 and now sits at 3.5. The over at 2.2 means about a 43% chance of 4 or more goals."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Real Sociedad, most recent first: lost 1-2 at Athletic Club, beat Levante 2-1, won 6-0 at Lillestroem, won 5-2 at Malaga and drew 1-1 at Union St.Gilloise. The Lillestroem and Union St.Gilloise games were in the Europa League.","Lyon, most recent first: beat Angers 2-0, lost 0-2 at Paris Saint-Germain, lost 0-3 at Hoffenheim, beat Nice 2-1 and beat Crystal Palace 3-2. The Hoffenheim and Crystal Palace games were in the Europa League.","In the 36-team Europa League table, Lyon are 13th with 6 points from 3 games and a goal difference of -1. Real Sociedad are 14th with 4 points from 3 games, but with a goal difference of +5."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["In the Europa League, the side most tipsters picked has won 67% of 67 matches we graded. That is a little above the 64% expected from the odds and team strength. Across all competitions, the majority pick won 64% of 6,770 matches, against 61% expected.","Winning often is not the same as making money, because favourites pay little when they win. Across 109,166 graded picks with prices, following every pick would have lost about 3.4% of the money staked. Our backtests found no proven profit in following tipsters."]}],"names":[{"text":"Real Sociedad","entity":"Real Sociedad"},{"text":"Lyon","entity":"Lyon"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"DraftKings","entity":"DraftKings"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Aiprotips1","entity":"Aiprotips1"},{"text":"freetips","entity":"freetips"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Athletic Club","entity":"Athletic Club"},{"text":"Levante","entity":"Levante"},{"text":"Lillestroem","entity":"Lillestroem"},{"text":"Malaga","entity":"Malaga"},{"text":"Union St.Gilloise","entity":"Union St.Gilloise"},{"text":"Angers","entity":"Angers"},{"text":"Paris Saint-Germain","entity":"Paris Saint-Germain"},{"text":"Hoffenheim","entity":"Hoffenheim"},{"text":"Nice","entity":"Nice"},{"text":"Crystal Palace","entity":"Crystal Palace"}]},"ru":{"home":"Реал Сосьедад","away":"Лион","takeaway":"Капперы почти единодушны: 13 из 17 выбрали победу Реал Сосьедад, за Лион не выступил никто. Букмекер тоже видит хозяев фаворитами, с шансами около 61%. Но среди этих капперов нет никого из топ-100 нашего рейтинга, а их общий результат в Лиге Европы чуть ниже ожидаемого. Своего прогноза мы не даём.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["Матч в Лиге Европы разобрали 17 капперов, всего у них 33 прогноза. Победу Реал Сосьедад выбрали 13 из них. За победу Лиона не выступил ни один, и никто не ставил сразу на обе стороны.","Ещё 4 каппера не выбирали победителя. TheBeardWiz и Aiprotips1 взяли двойной шанс на хозяев, то есть победу или ничью. У freetips прогноз «обе забьют», у sharpbetsclub — больше 2,5 гола в матче. Вариант «обе забьют» выбрали всего 5 капперов."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["Сильных имён здесь немного. Лучший из этих капперов, carlaBets, стоит на 123-м месте из 803 в нашем рейтинге. В топ-100 нет никого. Индекс выше 55 только у 5 капперов.","У 8 капперов, поставивших на Реал Сосьедад, есть рассчитанные прогнозы в Лиге Европы. Вместе они выиграли 64% из 420 прогнозов. С учётом коэффициентов и силы команд от них ожидалось 65%, так что результат чуть ниже ожидаемого.","Среди отдельных капперов выделяется TheBeardWiz: в этом турнире заходит 73% из 30 прогнозов. Ожидалось от этого каппера только 59%. У AdamsSmith7w 4 зашедших прогноза из 4, но это слишком маленькая выборка. А у Live2Sport_com заходит лишь 35% из 34, хотя ожидался 51%."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["Цены DraftKings тоже за хозяев. Коэффициент на Реал Сосьедад упал с 1.952 на открытии до 1.556. Без маржи букмекера это примерно 61% на победу хозяев.","На ничью приходится около 21%, на победу Лиона — около 18%. Коэффициент на гостей вырос с 3.5 до 5.25. Маржа букмекера около 5%.","Линия тотала сдвинулась с 2,5 до 3,5 гола. Шанс, что голов будет больше 3,5, букмекер оценивает примерно в 43%. Чтобы ставка на хозяев по 1.556 хотя бы окупалась, она должна заходить в 64% случаев, а это выше оценки букмекера."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Реал Сосьедад выиграл 3 из последних 5 матчей: 1:2 с Атлетиком в гостях, 2:1 с Леванте дома, 6:0 у Лиллестрёма, 5:2 у Малаги, 1:1 с Юнион Сен-Жилуаз.","У Лиона тоже 3 победы в 5 матчах: 2:0 с Анже дома, 0:2 у ПСЖ, 0:3 у Хоффенхайма, 2:1 с Ниццей и 3:2 с Кристал Пэлас.","В общей таблице Лиги Европы из 36 команд обе стоят рядом после 3 туров. Лион 13-й с 6 очками, разница мячей −1. Реал Сосьедад 14-й с 4 очками, но с разницей +5."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["Выбор большинства капперов в Лиге Европы заходил в 67% из 67 матчей. С учётом коэффициентов и силы команд ожидалось 64%. По всем турнирам выбор большинства заходил в 64% из 6770 матчей, а ожидался 61%.","Но частые победы ещё не прибыль. Большинство обычно выбирает фаворита, а за него платят мало. По всем 109166 прогнозам с известными коэффициентами итог ставок в минусе, около −3,4%. Наши проверки не нашли доказанной прибыли в следовании за капперами."]}],"names":[{"text":"Реал Сосьедад","entity":"Real Sociedad"},{"text":"Лион","entity":"Lyon"},{"text":"Лиона","entity":"Lyon"},{"text":"Лиге Европы","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"Лиги Европы","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Aiprotips1","entity":"Aiprotips1"},{"text":"freetips","entity":"freetips"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"DraftKings","entity":"DraftKings"},{"text":"Атлетиком","entity":"Athletic Club"},{"text":"Леванте","entity":"Levante"},{"text":"Лиллестрёма","entity":"Lillestroem"},{"text":"Малаги","entity":"Malaga"},{"text":"Юнион Сен-Жилуаз","entity":"Union St.Gilloise"},{"text":"Анже","entity":"Angers"},{"text":"ПСЖ","entity":"Paris Saint-Germain"},{"text":"Хоффенхайма","entity":"Hoffenheim"},{"text":"Ниццей","entity":"Nice"},{"text":"Кристал Пэлас","entity":"Crystal Palace"}]},"es":{"home":"Real Sociedad","away":"Lyon","takeaway":"13 de los 17 tipsters que publicaron sobre este partido eligieron la victoria de la Real Sociedad, y ninguno apostó por el Lyon. La casa de apuestas también la ve favorita, con cerca de un 61 % de probabilidad. Aun así, ninguno de esos tipsters está en el top 100 de nuestra clasificación y su historial en la Europa League va en línea con lo esperado, no por encima. Nosotros no damos ningún pronóstico propio.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["Contamos 17 tipsters con picks para este partido. 13 eligieron la victoria de la Real Sociedad y ninguno la del Lyon. Nadie apostó por los dos lados.","Los otros 4 no eligieron ganador. TheBeardWiz y Aiprotips1 optaron por la doble oportunidad local: la Real Sociedad gana o empata. freetips apostó a que marcan los dos equipos y sharpbetsclub, a más de 2,5 goles.","En total, 5 tipsters eligieron que marcarán ambos equipos y ninguno eligió lo contrario."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["El apoyo a la Real Sociedad es amplio, pero no viene de la parte alta de nuestra clasificación. Ninguno de los 13 está en el top 100. El mejor situado es carlaBets, en el puesto 123 de 803.","Lo que cuenta es su historial en la Europa League. 8 de esos 13 tienen picks calificados en esta competición: entre todos ganaron el 64 % de 420 picks. Lo esperado según las cuotas y la fuerza de los equipos era un 65 %, así que no superan lo previsto.","Por nombres, carlaBets ganó el 65 % de 26 picks, justo lo esperado. trophysportpick ganó el 64 % de 56, apenas por encima del 63 % esperado. Giftedtipster ganó el 73 % de 127, frente a un 71 % esperado. Live2Sport_com se queda en el 35 % de 34, muy por debajo del 51 % esperado. AdamsSmith7w acertó sus 4 picks, una muestra demasiado pequeña para sacar conclusiones."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["En DraftKings, la Real Sociedad paga 1,556 por ganar. Sin el margen de la casa, eso equivale a un 61 % de probabilidad. El empate queda en torno al 21 % y la victoria del Lyon, cerca del 18 %.","Las cuotas se han movido claramente hacia el local. La Real Sociedad abrió a 1,952 y el Lyon pasó de 3,5 a 5,25. El margen de la casa es de un 5 %.","Para no perder dinero con la Real Sociedad a 1,556 hay que acertar el 64 % de las veces, algo más que el 61 % que dan las cuotas. En goles, la línea subió de 2,5 a 3,5: más de 3,5 goles tiene un 43 % según el mercado."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["La Real Sociedad suma 3 victorias, 1 empate y 1 derrota en sus últimos 5 partidos: 1-2 ante el Athletic Club, 2-1 al Levante, 6-0 al Lillestroem, 5-2 al Malaga y 1-1 con el Union St.Gilloise.","El Lyon tiene 3 victorias y 2 derrotas: 2-0 al Angers, 0-2 ante el Paris Saint-Germain, 0-3 ante el Hoffenheim, 2-1 al Nice y 3-2 al Crystal Palace.","En la tabla de 36 equipos, tras 3 jornadas, el Lyon va un puesto por delante. Es 13.º con 6 puntos y -1 de diferencia de goles. La Real Sociedad es 14.ª con 4 puntos y +5."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["En la Europa League, el pick mayoritario de los tipsters ganó el 67 % de 67 partidos, por encima del 64 % esperado. En todas las competiciones ganó el 64 % de 6770 partidos, frente a un 61 % esperado.","Acertar a menudo no es lo mismo que ganar dinero. Los favoritos pagan poco: con la Real Sociedad a 1,556 haría falta acertar el 64 % de las veces solo para no perder dinero. En 109166 picks con cuota, el conjunto de los tipsters perdió un 3,4 % de lo apostado, y nuestras pruebas no encontraron beneficio demostrado en seguirlos."]}],"names":[{"text":"Real Sociedad","entity":"Real Sociedad"},{"text":"Lyon","entity":"Lyon"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"Aiprotips1","entity":"Aiprotips1"},{"text":"freetips","entity":"freetips"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"trophysportpick","entity":"trophysportpick"},{"text":"Giftedtipster","entity":"Giftedtipster"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"DraftKings","entity":"DraftKings"},{"text":"Athletic Club","entity":"Athletic Club"},{"text":"Levante","entity":"Levante"},{"text":"Lillestroem","entity":"Lillestroem"},{"text":"Malaga","entity":"Malaga"},{"text":"Union St.Gilloise","entity":"Union St.Gilloise"},{"text":"Angers","entity":"Angers"},{"text":"Paris Saint-Germain","entity":"Paris Saint-Germain"},{"text":"Hoffenheim","entity":"Hoffenheim"},{"text":"Nice","entity":"Nice"},{"text":"Crystal Palace","entity":"Crystal Palace"}]}},"written_at":"2026-11-05T15:50:08Z"}