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Only 5 have an index above 55, which is just a modest edge on our scale.","13 of the tipsters backing Milan have graded picks in the Europa League. Together they won 65% of 552 picks. The expected share from the odds and team strength was 66%, so they did no better than expected. The other 4 have no graded picks in this competition.","A few individual records stand out. TheBeardWiz won 73% of 30 picks here, against 59% expected. metapred_ won 80% of 10, and AdamsSmith7w won all 4, but those samples are too small to read. Live2Sport_com won only 35% of 34, against 51% expected."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["The bookmaker agrees with the tipsters. Milan are priced at 1.357. With the margin removed, that is about a 70% chance of a home win. You would need them to win 74% of the time just to break even at that price.","The draw is at 5.5, about 17%. Ferencvaros are at 7.5, about 13%. The price on Milan has drifted slightly since opening at 1.323. Ferencvaros have shortened a little from 8.0.","The goals line is 3.5. The prices give about a 43% chance of 4 goals or more. The bookmaker's margin on the result market is about 5%."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Milan have been up and down, winning 3 of their last 5. Most recent first, they beat Inter 3-1, lost 2-4 to Bologna, won 2-0 at Udinese, lost 0-3 at AFC Bournemouth in the Europa League and beat Atalanta 3-2.","Ferencvaros are unbeaten in 5, with 4 wins. Most recent first, they beat Paksi SE 2-0, beat MTK Budapest 5-0, beat Torreense 4-1 in the Europa League, drew 1-1 at Kisvarda FC and beat Viktoria Plzen 2-1 in the Europa League.","The Europa League table points the other way from the prices. Ferencvaros are 5th of 36, with 9 points from 3 wins. Their goal difference is +6. Milan are 24th, with 3 points from 3 games and a goal difference of -1."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["In the Europa League, the side most tipsters picked has won 67% of 67 matches we graded. The expected share was 64%. Across all competitions, the majority pick won 64% of 6,770 matches, against 61% expected.","That win rate is not the same as profit. The majority usually backs the favourite, and favourites pay little when they win. Across 109,166 priced picks from all tipsters, the return was -3.4%. Our backtests found no proven profit in following tipsters."]}],"names":[{"text":"AC Milan","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Milan","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Ferencvaros","entity":"Ferencvaros"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"Moneylinehacks","entity":"Moneylinehacks"},{"text":"Victoryedge12","entity":"Victoryedge12"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"metapred_","entity":"metapred_"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"Inter","entity":"Inter"},{"text":"Bologna","entity":"Bologna"},{"text":"Udinese","entity":"Udinese"},{"text":"AFC Bournemouth","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Atalanta","entity":"Atalanta"},{"text":"Paksi SE","entity":"Paksi SE"},{"text":"MTK Budapest","entity":"MTK Budapest"},{"text":"Torreense","entity":"Torreense"},{"text":"Kisvarda FC","entity":"Kisvarda FC"},{"text":"Viktoria Plzen","entity":"Viktoria Plzen"}]},"ru":{"home":"Милан","away":"Ференцварош","takeaway":"Почти все капперы за Милан: победу хозяев выбрали 17 из 19, а на победу Ференцвароша не поставил никто. Букмекер тоже считает Милан явным фаворитом, шансы около 70%. При этом ни один сторонник Милана не входит в топ-100 нашего рейтинга, а в Лиге Европы они угадывают ровно на ожидаемом уровне. Своего прогноза на этот матч мы не даём.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["На этот матч прогнозы оставили 19 капперов, всего у них 32 ставки. 17 из них выбрали победу Милана. За победу Ференцвароша не высказался никто, и никто не ставил на обе стороны сразу.","Ещё 2 каппера обошлись без прогноза на победителя. sharpbetsclub ждёт, что забьют обе команды. Moneylinehacks взял фору 0 на Ференцварош.","Victoryedge12 и Giftedtipster к победе Милана добавили и другие ставки. Среди них тотал больше 2,5 и фора −1 на хозяев."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["Сильных имён среди сторонников Милана нет. Лучший из них, carlaBets, стоит в нашем рейтинге на 123-м месте из 803. В топ-100 не входит никто, индекс выше 55 только у 5 капперов.","13 из 17 сторонников Милана уже имеют рассчитанные прогнозы в Лиге Европы. Вместе их прогнозы заходят в 65% из 552 случаев. Исходя из коэффициентов и силы команд, ожидалось почти столько же, 66%. Иными словами, в этом турнире они угадывают на обычном уровне, не лучше.","Заметно выше ожидаемого играет TheBeardWiz: прогнозы этого каппера заходят в 73% из 30 случаев. Ожидалось только 59%. У metapred_ зашло 8 из 10, у AdamsSmith7w 4 из 4, но это слишком маленькие выборки, чтобы делать выводы. Live2Sport_com, наоборот, угадал только 35% из 34 прогнозов, хотя ожидалось 51%. У ericamathews262, NextbetT, dbunk_picks и everybodyeats09 рассчитанных прогнозов в Лиге Европы пока нет."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["DraftKings дают на победу Милана коэффициент 1,357. Если убрать маржу букмекера, это шансы около 70%. На ничью приходится около 17%, на победу Ференцвароша около 13%.","Маржа здесь 5,2%. Из-за неё ставка на Милан окупается, только если такие прогнозы заходят чаще чем в 74% случаев.","С открытия линии Милан стал чуть менее явным фаворитом: коэффициент вырос с 1,323 до 1,357. На Ференцварош он упал с 8,0 до 7,5. Тотал стоит на отметке 3,5, шансы на 4 гола и больше букмекер оценивает примерно в 43%."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["Милан в последних 5 матчах трижды выиграл и дважды проиграл: 3:1 с Интером, 2:4 с Болоньей, 2:0 у Удинезе, 0:3 у Борнмута в Лиге Европы, 3:2 с Аталантой.","Ференцварош в последних 5 матчах не проигрывал: 2:0 с Пакшем, 5:0 с МТК Будапешт, 4:1 с Торреенсе в Лиге Европы, 1:1 у Кишварды, 2:1 с Викторией Пльзень в Лиге Европы.","В общей таблице из 36 команд Ференцварош пятый: 3 победы в 3 матчах, 9 очков. Разница мячей у него +6. Милан на 24-м месте с 3 очками: 1 победа и 2 поражения, разница −1."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["В Лиге Европы выбор большинства капперов заходил в 67% из 67 матчей. Ожидалось 64%, так что разница небольшая, а выборка маленькая. По всем турнирам картина похожая: выбор большинства заходил в 64% из 6770 матчей. Там ожидалось 61%.","Высокий процент угаданных исходов не означает прибыли. Большинство обычно ставит на фаворитов с низкими коэффициентами, и выигрыш по ним маленький. По 109166 прогнозам с известными коэффициентами итог отрицательный: минус 3,4% от суммы ставок."]}],"names":[{"text":"Милан","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Милана","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Ференцварош","entity":"Ferencvaros"},{"text":"Ференцвароша","entity":"Ferencvaros"},{"text":"Лиге Европы","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"Moneylinehacks","entity":"Moneylinehacks"},{"text":"Victoryedge12","entity":"Victoryedge12"},{"text":"Giftedtipster","entity":"Giftedtipster"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"metapred_","entity":"metapred_"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"ericamathews262","entity":"ericamathews262"},{"text":"NextbetT","entity":"NextbetT"},{"text":"dbunk_picks","entity":"dbunk_picks"},{"text":"everybodyeats09","entity":"everybodyeats09"},{"text":"DraftKings","entity":"DraftKings"},{"text":"Интером","entity":"Inter"},{"text":"Болоньей","entity":"Bologna"},{"text":"Удинезе","entity":"Udinese"},{"text":"Борнмута","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Аталантой","entity":"Atalanta"},{"text":"Пакшем","entity":"Paksi SE"},{"text":"МТК Будапешт","entity":"MTK Budapest"},{"text":"Торреенсе","entity":"Torreense"},{"text":"Кишварды","entity":"Kisvarda FC"},{"text":"Викторией Пльзень","entity":"Viktoria Plzen"}]},"es":{"home":"Milan","away":"Ferencvaros","takeaway":"Casi todos los tipsters van con el Milan: 17 de 19 eligieron su victoria y ninguno la del Ferencvaros. La casa de apuestas también lo ve favorito, con alrededor de un 70 % de opciones. Ese apoyo pesa menos de lo que parece: ninguno de ellos está en el top 100 de nuestra clasificación, y los 13 que tienen picks calificados en esta competición aciertan, en conjunto, lo esperado y nada más. No damos pronóstico propio.","sections":[{"id":"picks","paragraphs":["Contamos 19 tipsters con alguna apuesta en este partido, que suman 32 picks entre todos. De ellos, 17 eligieron la victoria del Milan. Ninguno apostó por la victoria del Ferencvaros y ninguno jugó a los dos lados.","Los otros 2 no eligieron ganador. sharpbetsclub apostó a que marcan los dos equipos. Moneylinehacks tomó un hándicap 0 a favor del Ferencvaros, una apuesta que gana si el visitante gana y devuelve el dinero si empata.","Victoryedge12 y Giftedtipster añadieron varias apuestas más sobre el Milan y sobre los goles, como más de 2,5 goles en el partido. Victoryedge12 también jugó a que marcan ambos equipos."]},{"id":"tipsters","paragraphs":["Ninguno de los 17 que apoyan al Milan está en el top 100 de nuestra clasificación. Esa clasificación incluye 803 tipsters. El mejor situado es carlaBets, en el puesto 123. Solo 5 de ellos superan los 55 puntos en nuestro índice.","En la Europa League, 13 de estos 17 tienen picks calificados; los otros 4 no tienen ninguno en esta competición. Esos 13 ganaron juntos el 65 % de 552 apuestas. Lo esperado según las cuotas y la fuerza de los equipos era un 66 %, prácticamente lo mismo. Es decir, en esta competición no han acertado más de lo normal.","Hay casos sueltos llamativos. TheBeardWiz ganó el 73 % de 30 apuestas. Lo esperado para este tipster era un 59 %. metapred_ y AdamsSmith7w tienen porcentajes altos, pero con 10 y 4 picks la muestra es demasiado pequeña para sacar conclusiones. En el otro extremo, Live2Sport_com ganó solo el 35 % de 34 apuestas, cuando se esperaba un 51 %. ericamathews262, NextbetT, dbunk_picks y everybodyeats09 no tienen picks calificados en esta competición."]},{"id":"odds","paragraphs":["La cuota del Milan está en 1,357, así que la casa de apuestas lo ve claro favorito. Quitando su margen, que es del 5,2 %, eso equivale a un 70 % de opciones de victoria local. El empate queda en torno al 17 % y la victoria del Ferencvaros, en torno al 13 %.","Para no perder dinero a largo plazo con esa cuota del Milan, habría que acertar el 74 % de las veces. La cuota del Milan abrió en 1,323 y ha subido un poco. La del Ferencvaros, en cambio, bajó de 8 a 7,5.","En goles, la línea está en 3,5. Las cuotas dan un 43 % de probabilidad a que haya 4 goles o más."]},{"id":"form","paragraphs":["El Milan alterna resultados en sus últimos 5 partidos: 3-1 al Inter, 2-4 ante el Bologna, 2-0 al Udinese, 0-3 ante el Bournemouth y 3-2 al Atalanta. La derrota ante el Bournemouth fue en la Europa League.","El Ferencvaros llega en mejor racha: 2-0 al Paksi, 5-0 al MTK Budapest, 4-1 al Torreense, 1-1 ante el Kisvarda y 2-1 al Viktoria Plzen. No ha perdido ninguno de esos 5 partidos.","La tabla de la Europa League tiene 36 equipos. El Ferencvaros es 5.º con 9 puntos. Ha ganado los 3 partidos que ha jugado. El Milan es 24.º con 3 puntos y una diferencia de goles de -1."]},{"id":"consensus","paragraphs":["En esta competición, la opción elegida por la mayoría de tipsters ganó el 67 % de 67 partidos. Lo esperado según las cuotas y la fuerza de los equipos era un 64 %. En todas las competiciones que seguimos, la mayoría acertó el 64 % de 6770 partidos. Ahí lo esperado era un 61 %.","Acertar a menudo no es lo mismo que ganar dinero, porque los favoritos pagan poco. De todas las apuestas con cuota que hemos calificado, 109166 en total, el resultado medio fue una pérdida del 3,4 %. Nuestros análisis no han encontrado beneficio demostrado en seguir a los tipsters."]}],"names":[{"text":"Milan","entity":"AC Milan"},{"text":"Ferencvaros","entity":"Ferencvaros"},{"text":"Europa League","entity":"Europa League"},{"text":"sharpbetsclub","entity":"sharpbetsclub"},{"text":"Moneylinehacks","entity":"Moneylinehacks"},{"text":"Victoryedge12","entity":"Victoryedge12"},{"text":"Giftedtipster","entity":"Giftedtipster"},{"text":"carlaBets","entity":"carlaBets"},{"text":"TheBeardWiz","entity":"TheBeardWiz"},{"text":"metapred_","entity":"metapred_"},{"text":"AdamsSmith7w","entity":"AdamsSmith7w"},{"text":"Live2Sport_com","entity":"Live2Sport_com"},{"text":"ericamathews262","entity":"ericamathews262"},{"text":"NextbetT","entity":"NextbetT"},{"text":"dbunk_picks","entity":"dbunk_picks"},{"text":"everybodyeats09","entity":"everybodyeats09"},{"text":"Inter","entity":"Inter"},{"text":"Bologna","entity":"Bologna"},{"text":"Udinese","entity":"Udinese"},{"text":"Bournemouth","entity":"AFC Bournemouth"},{"text":"Atalanta","entity":"Atalanta"},{"text":"Paksi","entity":"Paksi SE"},{"text":"MTK Budapest","entity":"MTK Budapest"},{"text":"Torreense","entity":"Torreense"},{"text":"Kisvarda","entity":"Kisvarda FC"},{"text":"Viktoria Plzen","entity":"Viktoria Plzen"}]}},"written_at":"2026-11-05T15:50:08Z"}